NFL Best Bets: Week 16

Christmas is almost here, which means lots of traveling for many of us. I’ll be heading out to see my in-laws in West Virginia, home of the great Loretta Lynn. My wife’s father didn’t work in the coal mines, but she is a proud steel worker’s daughter, which means her family is hardcore Pittsburgh Steelers fans. While I’m there visiting, I’m a Steelers fan too. It’s a nice reprieve from my usual Carolina Panthers fandom.

Travel matters for NFL teams too, just not always in the obvious ways. Time zones, distance, and short rest do affect performance, especially in extreme spots like cross-country trips or quick turnarounds, but most of the old betting myths have been beaten into the market. For example, from 2003–2012, West Coast teams playing early games in the Eastern time zone covered just 44 percent of the time, which helped fuel the long-running “West Coast fade” narrative. Since 2013, that same spot has flipped, with those teams covering nearly 60 percent as the market adjusted.

The edge now isn’t blindly fading travel. It shows up when travel stacks, back-to-back road games, or long flights are paired with body clock mismatches. A good example this week is Jacksonville traveling cross-country into Denver, where altitude tends to show up late rather than early, especially in the second half. See all our Week 16 NFL Picks Here.

NFL BEST BETS

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Washington has shut down Jayden Daniels for the season and will start Marcus Mariota again, who faces an Eagles defense allowing just 19.4 points per game, sixth in the league. Philadelphia’s offense has a good matchup here. Washington ranks last in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in scoring defense at 26.8 points per game, while also allowing 246.3 passing yards per game. A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley all draw favorable looks against a secondary that struggles to limit explosive plays.

On the other side, in addition to Daniels, Washington is without left tackle Laremy Tunsil and Zach Ertz. That matters against an Eagles pass rush with 11 sacks over its last two games, now facing a backup quarterback behind a weakened line.

Philadelphia can clinch the NFC East with a win, while Washington has been eliminated, so motivation is a big factor in this game. I think it could get lopsided quick.

Pick: Eagles -6.5

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Minnesota is playing its best football of the season. Over the last two weeks, the Vikings have scored 31 and 37 points, with J.J. McCarthy throwing for 413 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception during that span. New York counters with a team on an eight-game losing streak, sitting at 2–12 and eliminated from playoff contention.

The matchup favors Minnesota’s offense. The Giants rank 31st in run defense, allowing 153.6 yards per game, and sit near the bottom of the league in points allowed. That creates room for both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, while Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson draw favorable matchups against a secondary that has struggled to limit production all season.

Defensively, Minnesota holds a clear edge. The Vikings allow 180.4 passing yards per game, fifth in the NFL, and have surrendered just 14 passing touchdowns. New York’s offense has been inconsistent week to week and now faces a defense that limits explosive plays and forces long drives. I’m taking the hot team whose coach wasn’t just fired.

Pick: Vikings -3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Denver enters this matchup at 12–2, unbeaten at home, and still playing for the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye. The Broncos are 7–0 at Empower Field this season and have won 12 straight home games dating back to last year. Bo Nix is 14–2 in his career at Mile High, where Denver’s offense has been consistently more efficient.

The defensive matchup favors Denver. The Broncos rank second in run defense, allowing 90.9 rushing yards per game, and have recorded 55 sacks in 13 games. That puts pressure on a Jacksonville offense that leans on balance and now travels cross country into altitude. Trevor Lawrence has thrown interceptions in 8 of 14 games and faces one of the league’s most disruptive pass rushes.

Jacksonville enters at 10–4 and on a five-game win streak, but the roster takes a hit here. Rookie running back Bhayshul Tuten is out, reducing backfield depth, and Josh Hines-Allen has been limited. Denver, meanwhile, gets healthier on offense, with RJ Harvey returning to full participation and providing additional flexibility in the run game.

Both defenses are strong against the run, but Denver’s advantage comes through balance and environment. The Jaguars rank around league average offensively and defensively, while Denver pairs top-tier defensive production with one of the league’s strongest home-field edges. In a game priced at a field goal, that combination matters.

Pick: Broncos -3