Super Bowl LX Player Props
Super Bowl LX features the most improbable championship matchup in some time. The Seattle Seahawks entered the NFL season at 60-1 odds while the New England Patriots were 80-1 to win the title. Both teams defied preseason projections that positioned them as rebuilding squads rather than legitimate contenders. The Seahawks exceeded expectations under second-year coach Mike Macdonald, while the Patriots capitalized on Drake Maye’s rapid development to return to championship relevance ahead of schedule.
This unexpected path to the Super Bowl creates unique player prop opportunities that oddsmakers may not have fully calibrated. Both rosters feature players who performed well beyond preseason expectations, and their statistical profiles reflect growth throughout the season rather than established baseline production. The Patriots’ defense operates primarily through zone coverage concepts, while the Seahawks employ aggressive front-seven schemes designed to limit rushing production. FanDuel NFL betting odds have this game leaning towards the Seahawks currently, as 4.5-point favorites, but that line could move closer to game day. The following are seven player props I like for Super Bowl LX. I’m posting these picks about a week beforehand, so make sure to check back for any changes and watch for NFL news update and tweets about players or line movements.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Over 93.5 Receving yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters Super Bowl LX not only as Seattle’s primary receiving weapon but as the heavy favorite to have the most receiving yards in the game. The prop line of 93.5 receiving yards reflects reasonable expectations rather than inflated optimism. JSN finished the regular season averaging over 85 yards per game while facing defensive attention designed to limit his production. The Patriots deploy a zone-heavy coverage scheme that struggles against route runners who operate effectively in the intermediate portions of the field. Smith-Njigba excels in precisely those areas, working between 10 and 20 yards with consistent route precision. The Patriots allowed considerable yardage to top opposing receivers throughout the playoff run, particularly in their divisional round matchup, where Houston’s top pass catcher found space despite limited quarterback stability. Seattle’s offensive coordinator knows how to exploit single-high safety looks by using Smith-Njigba’s ability to settle into voids. The Seahawks receiver recorded at least 90 yards in six regular-season contests, and the Super Bowl environment typically produces higher passing volumes as teams chase points in critical moments.
Sam Darnold
Over 228.5 Passing Yards
Sam Darnold has exceeded passing yardage expectations with regularity throughout Seattle’s playoff run, making the over 228.5 passing yards a reasonable consideration.
Darnold averaged over 240 passing yards per game during the regular season while operating within an offense that prioritizes controlled aggression. The Patriots defense forces quarterbacks into quick decisions through pressure schemes, but Darnold has demonstrated composure against similar approaches in both conference championship rounds. New England’s secondary relies on zone concepts that create throwing windows for quarterbacks willing to take calculated risks. Darnold’s connection with Smith-Njigba and the tight end position provides consistent outlet options when pressure arrives. Seattle’s coaching staff has shown willingness to air the ball out when opponents sell out to stop the run, and the Patriots ranked among the league’s better run defenses throughout the postseason. The game script likely requires Darnold to throw more than 30 attempts, and his efficiency in completing intermediate routes suggests he reaches this yardage total without requiring explosive plays.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson enters the Super Bowl as New England’s top rushing option despite what Dynasty football owners will tell you about TreVeyon Henderson. The over 50.5 rushing yards acknowledges Stevenson’s role without demanding exceptional performance. Seattle’s run defense showed vulnerability against physical runners during the NFC Championship Game, where Los Angeles found rushing lanes despite facing consistent defensive pressure. Stevenson carried 25 times for 71 yards in difficult weather conditions during the AFC Championship Game, demonstrating his ability to grind out yardage in adverse circumstances. The Patriots’ offensive line creates sufficient push in short-yardage situations where Stevenson operates most effectively. Seattle’s defensive front prioritizes gap integrity over explosive plays, which typically allows running backs to accumulate steady yardage rather than breaking long gains. Stevenson’s receiving contributions add another pathway toward this yardage total, as New England frequently deploys him on checkdown routes when pass protection breaks down.
Drake Maye
Under 37.5 rushing Yards
I believe these rushing odds on this are inflated from the Broncos game.
Drake Maye’s rushing ability creates opportunities for New England’s offense, but the under 37.5 rushing yards prop line reflects situational outliers and doesn’t align well with Super Bowl game flow. Maye scrambled effectively throughout the playoffs when pocket pressure forced movement, but Seattle’s defensive front ranks among the league’s best at containing quarterbacks in structured rushes. The Seahawks defense excelled at limiting quarterback scrambles during the regular season by maintaining disciplined edge rushers who close escape lanes. Super Bowl game scripts typically discourage designed quarterback runs except in obvious short-yardage situations where defenses anticipate the attempt.
The Patriots are relying more on controlled passing concepts than mobility-based schemes. Seattle’s defensive coordinator has shown a tendency to spy mobile quarterbacks with linebackers specifically assigned to track their movement. Maye accumulated rushing yards against teams that struggled with gap discipline, but Seattle’s defense rarely permits those opportunities.
I feel like this is a trap bet. I like the under.
Kayshon Boutte
Over 30.5 Receiving yards
Kayshon Boutte operates as New England’s third or fourth receiving option in some games, and a top target the next, but the over 30.5 receiving yards is very achievable for a player who generates explosive plays sporadically.
Boutte recorded multiple games during the regular season where limited targets produced significant yardage through contested catches and yards after contact. Seattle’s secondary focuses defensive resources on primary threats, creating single-coverage situations for complementary receivers like Boutte. The Patriots demonstrated willingness to target Boutte on vertical routes designed to test cornerback depth, particularly when Maye identifies favorable matchups before the snap. Boutte’s average depth of target exceeds most Patriots receivers, meaning two or three receptions could satisfy this yardage requirement. Seattle’s zone coverage concepts occasionally leave outside receivers in single coverage against cornerbacks playing with inside leverage, creating opportunities for skilled route runners to win outside releases.
Hunter Henry
Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry serves as New England’s most reliable receiving option beyond the wide receiver position, but I’m just not likely this line. 38.5 receiving yards seems each, but in recent playoff games he hasn’t come close to this.
I understand that Henry’s production declined as weather conditions worsened throughout the AFC Championship Game, and the Patriots relied more heavily on running plays; however, Seattle’s defense has excelled at limiting tight end production throughout the postseason by deploying safety help over the middle of the field, where Henry operates most effectively. The Seahawks held opposing tight ends to minimal yardage during both playoff victories by forcing quarterbacks toward perimeter targets rather than allowing comfortable throws to in-line options. Henry’s average yards per reception suggests he requires four or five catches to exceed this total, but New England’s game plan may emphasize shorter throws to running backs and wide receivers. Seattle’s linebacker coverage has improved considerably during the second half of the season, particularly in situations where tight ends run intermediate routes against zone drops.
AJ Barner
Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
AJ Barner emerged as a reliable target for Seattle during the regular season, but the 25.5 receiving yards prop seems too high-risk for me. Barner’s production in this offense is too sporadic and unrealistic for a tight end operating within a diverse passing attack. Barner’s role decreased during playoff games as Seattle leaned more heavily on Smith-Njigba and outside receivers against aggressive defensive fronts.
The Patriots’ defense has played well against TEs the last few games, and Barner’s production typically comes from short-yardage situations and red-zone opportunities rather than from intermediate routes that accumulate significant yardage. Seattle’s offensive approach emphasizes spreading the ball among multiple targets, which limits individual receiving totals for players beyond the primary options. New England’s defensive coordinator has shown a tendency to bracket tight ends with combination coverages that force quarterbacks toward single-covered perimeter receivers. Barner’s blocking responsibilities in Super Bowl game plans typically reduce his route participation compared to regular-season usage.
I would rather take a long shot and bet Barner scoring a touchdown, I’m taking the under with the odds.
