DFS Picks Week 8: GPP Lineup Builder Tips

DFS Picks Week 8

Hey all and welcome to Week 8! Week 7 was my best of the season from a DFS perspective. I had a healthy does of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. I had Quinshon Judkins and the Browns DST in almost every lineup as well as significant exposure to Chris Olave and Jonathan Taylor. Alas, I didn’t have much Bo Nix, and no DeVonta Smith nor Oronde Gadsden which kept me from scoring a really high finish. We are getting into much more useable stats in terms of sample size, so the QB model is performing much better, which is good because this week it has a QB that has scored the highest any QB of mine has ever scored, which is interesting because a lot of QBs are coming in with exceptionally low scores this week. I’m sure the byes and schedule aren’t really helping, but it is quite a wide range here in Week 8.

Reminders:

• The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
• Join the Discord, it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.

Let’s dive into it!

QB1 – Bo Nix (10 – 11%)

While it feels a little like chasing last week’s performance, Nix is off the charts in my model. The Cowboys are allowing about 20 passing points per game and 5.7 rushing points per game to QBs, a roughly 25 point floor for Mr. Nix. Outside of Bryce Young, the Cowboys have allowed over 20 fantasy points to every QB they have faced in 2025. 

While we would arguably want Nix to run a TD or 2 in like he did last week, stacking him with Courtland Sutton (11%), Troy Franklin (5%), or Evan Engram (3%) could be fruitful in this juicy matchup (pun intended). CB Trevon Diggs is in concussion protocol and could miss this game, making things even easier for the Denver wideouts. Also, Dallas uses zone coverage at an 80% rate. Engram’s target percentage increases by close to 10% against zone coverage.  

Dallas is porous against the run as well, bottom 3rd in the league in fact. They’ve yielded 141 rushing yards per game and 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. J.K. Dobbins (8 – 9%) makes for a could play if not rostering Nix.

QB2 – Dak Prescott (3 – 4%)

Scoring much lower but in the same game is Mr. Prescott. Dak comes in as QB2 largely because of the strength of the Denver Broncos defense. However, we just saw Jaxson Dart and company push the Broncos to their limits. Dallas continues to the lead the league in combined points, combined yards, and combined TDs per game. 

Dak stayed on fire last week, making it a month worth of games in which he has thrown 3 or more TDs per game. He is also protecting the ball quite well as he hasn’t thrown an INT since September 21. While the Denver defense is formidable, there are some cracks in the foundation and some areas that Dak can exploit. At 44%, Denver leads the NFL in pressure rate. On top of that, they blitz fairly heavily. Dak ranks 2nd in football in yards per pass attempt when pressured and he has a 70% completion rate when blitzed. As I’ve stated in this space over the last few weeks, the Cowboys offense is going to have to keep the offense moving in order to stay in games because their defense is not good.

CeeDee Lamb (9 – 11%) picked right back up in his return to action last week. He will be seeing a lot of CB Patrick Surtain, but Lamb also travels into the slot and that will be a way for the Boys to try and free him up. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs more slot routes than usual in this matchup. Jake Ferguson (3%) remained involved in the offense even with Lamb back. The Broncos are not vulnerable to TEs per se, but Fergie is someone Dak can look to when blitzed. Goerge Pickens (3 – 4%) was still utilized as well and makes for a nice pivot off of Lamb, but he will likely see Surtain when Lamb does not.

QB3 – Jaxson Dart (3 – 4%)

The Eagles play man coverage a top 7 rate. If I were DC Vic Fangio, I would consider dialing that down as Jaxson Dart has a 7.5 yards per attempt average, 4 TDs, and a QB rating of 107.5 rating against man coverage. Against zone, Dart is at 6.6 yards per attempt and possess a 83.2 rating. Regardless of which style of coverage they use, Philly is yielding 27 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, and they’ve played guys like Matt Stafford and Carson Wentz. While it’s a small sample size, Dart is averaging 44.5 rushing yards per game, but last week’s matchup against Denver was the first week he rushed for less than 54 yards. That’s like a guaranteed TD in DraftKings scoring. 

While I do not expect a repeat of the week 6 matchup, I do like Dart because Philadelphia is likely to have more success against this Giants defense, which should keep Dart and the New York offense moving. The Gmen are dealing with many injuries to their defense, which includes starters like CB Paulson Adebo, S Jevon Holland, and LB Brian Burns. All 3 have not practiced this week and are likely to miss. New York also has a few depth pieces who will miss the game or are dealing with various ailments.

I like stacking Dart with TE Theo Johnson (4%) who is one of Dart’s favorite red zone targets. Wan’Dale Robinson (8%) also makes some sense considering he is leading the team in targets since Dart took over. Daniel Bellinger (1%) is also garnering some attention from the rookie QB. The Eagles are statistically pretty good against the TE position, but they also haven’t played too many teams who make it a point to feature their TE. Cam Skattebo (5%) is also getting a healthy amount of targets and makes for a unique stack with Dart.

If looking for a run back, I’m playing a hunch here. Saquon Barkley (9 – 10%) gained about 25 rushing yards on his first 2 carries against these Giants in week 6…and for some reason Philly just stopped using him. If I’m HC Nick Sirianni, as much I want to protect my all-star RB, at some point you have to unleash him. Sirianni seems to pride himself on being able to win in a variety of ways. Last week it was with their passing game, it kind of makes sense that this week it could the running one, especially with AJ Brown out.

QB4 – Josh Allen (5%)

Allen is back from the Bills’ week 7 bye. The Carolina Panthers pressure rate is extremely low, last in the league in fact. Allen is performing very well when he isn’t pressured but is struggling a bit when pressured. This is a plus matchup for him. 

A few things can cap Allen’s ceiling, however. First, it could be James Cook (16 – 18%) who gets significant run in this game and eats up the TDs. On top of that, with the Bills being favored by more than a touchdown, it’s fair to question whether or not Carolina can keep up. This would be another argument for going with Cook as Buffalo uses him to close out the game in the second half. One approach that will be unique is pairing Allen with his RB and hoping that the two combine for 3 or more TDs.

If looking for a runback here, 48% of the yards the Buffalo defense has been giving up are rushing yards, which is the highest in the NFL. The Panthers also achieve 43% of their offensive yards via the rush, top 5 in football. Chuba Hubbard (2%) returned last week to muddy up the waters in this backfield, but it continued to be Rico Dowdle (2%) who was the more efficient back. I don’t like that the backfield is now a tandem one, and I will probably stay away. Probably….

Honorable Mention – Caleb Williams (5%) and Lamar Jackson (14%)

The statistic pushing analysts, of which I am one more often than not, are highlighting the horrible numbers associated with the Ravens defense. Numbers like them allowing the 5th most passing yards per game and the 2nd most fantasy points per game to QBs. However, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Marlon Humphrey, S Kyle Hamilton, and LB Roquan Smith have all practiced in full this week and look to be back for this game. It’s hard for me to not envision that the defense will be better than it has been through the first six weeks of the season. 

If I’m rolling with Caleb, Rome Odunze (7%) is my preferred stacking option. Baltimore uses man coverage at a top 3 rate. Both Williams’ and Odunze’s numbers against man coverage are quite good. Also, the Ravens are having issues getting to the QB; Caleb does much better when he has time to throw.

Zay Flowers (25 – 30%) is looking like one of the chalk WRs of the week. There is good reason for it as the Bears secondary is suddenly in shambles. CB Kyle Gordon was ruled out on Friday. CB Tyrique Stevenson is out with a shoulder injury. CB Jaylon Johnson is still on IR. Chicago is vulnerable via the pass. From a game theory perspective, I would prefer to pivot to Mark Andrews (7%) whom everyone hates right now as a way to get different in stacking this environment, but the Ravens pass catchers are in a good environment. No one will own Rashod Bateman (sub 1%) by the way.

Another way to approach this game is rolling with Derrick Henry (20%) who gets FB Patrick Ricard back in week 8. The Ravens rushing attack is a bit of an old school one which often employs a lead blocker out of the backfield, something they have been missing with Ricard. The Ravens DST with Henry will probably be low owned but could be similar to the Judkins and Browns DST play from a week ago.

One-offs

• Jonathan Taylor (18 – 20%) is proving to be the best first round selection in seasonal redraft leagues this year. As such, his DFS DraftKings price has increased to the astronomical level of $9500. That’s close to CMC’s salary from a few seasons ago. This week the Colts get a Titans defense that is allowing an average of 139.6 rushing yards per game, including 175 last week against the Patriots. Indianapolis is favored by 14.5, a spread suggestive of a team running out the game as they nurse their lead in the second half. 
• Bijan Robinson (25 – 30%) could be the highest owned RB on the slate and rightfully so. The Browns, Chargers, and Panthers have run all over the Dolphins in the last 3 weeks. I don’t see things changing too much behind this very good run blocking offensive line in Atlanta. From a game theory perspective, a way that Bijan could fail is if it is Tyler Allgeier (1%) who scores the TDs on Sunday, but he has been a limited participant all week as he is dealing with a hip issue. Should he sit, I don’t know how one doesn’t play Bijan.
• Rachaad White (20 – 25%) will be the primary RB yet again with Bucky Irving sitting out another game. The Saints just gave up over 200 yards rushing to the Bears backfield in week 7. With no Mike Evans nor Chris Godwin, and with an ailing Emeka Egbuka, it would not surprise me if the Bucs elected to utilize their ground game to execute the offense this weekend. Just keep in mind that the Saints are likely aware of this too. White’s projected ownership doesn’t help either.
• Breece Hall (15%) has been having to deal with rumors that his time in New York may be at an end. If that is the Jets agenda, then featuring him against one of the worst rushing defenses in football seems prudent to me. Put that aside, if you want to get your first win of the year, then giving Hall a healthy amount of opportunities against this defense needs to happen. So either way, it just makes sense that Hall will see some run in this matchup, which probably means the Jets will screw it up. If it doesn’t happen this week, it is a clear indication that the Jets are tanking for a high draft pick. Where’s relegation when you need it?
• Ja’Marr Chase (25 – 30%) is one of if not the best WRs in the NFL. Joe Flacco (7%) may be the hero who saves the Bengals’ season with his heavy passing ways. Chase will not have to deal with CB Sauce Gardner this week as he is already ruled out. Don’t be surprised if Chase checks in with over 100 yards and 2 TDs, something he’ll likely need to be optimal with his $8100 DK salary. 
• Stefon Diggs (9%) will likely face a lot of CB Tyson Campbell who was surprisingly traded to the Browns two weeks ago. In his first game DK Metcalf put up a stat line of 4 – 95 – 1 against him. Drake Maye (3 – 4%) and Diggs have some exciting stats against man coverage, something that Cleveland uses at a top 10 rate in the league. The Browns also sport a solid run defense, so the Patriots will have to utilize their passing offense in this matchup. My model would like Maye more, but the total and spread are suggestive of a game that will not be back-and-forth. 
• Chris Olave (15 – 20%) is the 2nd most targeted receiver in football right now. While Jahmyr Gibbs busted one gigantic run against the defense last week, the Bucs run defense mostly neutralized the Lions rushing attack. My point in saying that is because I believe it’s likely Tampa keeps the Saints ground game in check, which means Spencer Rattler (2%) will have to take to the air to find success. 
• Elic Ayomanor (5%) has been getting a steady dose of targets here in his rookie season. He has yet to have a breakout game, but going against a depleted Colts secondary could be the matchup we have been waiting for.
• Jayden Higgins (1%) is the WR whom I believe stands to benefit if Nico Collins misses this weekend. Over the last 3 weeks, San Francisco is allowing the 2nd most passing yards against. If Collins starts, then I’m not too interested.
• George Kittle (10%) returned to action last week and did nothing. This week, during his self-proclaimed Tight End Week, he’s probably going to find the end zone. I would like his ownership to be a little lower, and maybe it will be as we get closer to kickoff, but I’m placing an anytime TD bet on Kittle for week 8.
• Harold Fannin (3%) is someone I like if David Njoku sits. While Dillon Grabriel (sub 1%) doesn’t throw deep, he does target his TEs heavily. The aDOT isn’t very high, but death by 1,000 paper cuts isn’t something I hate for the full point PPR DraftKings site. Additionally, the Patriots aren’t all that great against opposing TEs.
• Cade Otton (8%) was the beneficiary of more targets once Mike Evans left the game in week 7. While I prefer to stack my QB with a TE this week, I like Otton to find the end zone for the first time this season in Week 8 and will put him in a few lineups. When both Evans and Godwin missed time last year, Otton was TE3 with 16 fantasy points per game.