The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Philadelphia Eagles players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jalen Hurts, QB
After consecutive losses, the Eagles leaned into their pass game and were rewarded in a major way.
- Record: 2-0
- Points: 66
- CMP%: 79.1%
Jalen Hurts was as efficient as anyone in the NFL in the two weeks prior to the Week 9 bye (34-of-43 for 505 yards and seven touchdowns), reminding us of why he’s an elite fantasy option.
The Tush Push is a cheat code, we know that, but this isn’t a one-dimensional player. This is going to be a fun Monday nighter, and I believe the Packers can defend this offense in a unique way, but that doesn’t shift Hurts out of the top tier.
He can be a difference-maker in a variety of ways, and that’s exactly why you paid a premium in August for his services.
Saquon Barkley, RB
A splash play?
Multiple scores?
Who is this, and what has he done with the disappointing version of Saquon Barkley that I had come to terms with?
Philly’s lead back decimated the Giants prior to the bye, and it only seemed like a matter of time: players this talented with this skill set can only be contained for so long.
But is he back?
Well, it depends on what “back” means to you.
Last season was historic for a reason: stretches like that don’t happen often. So if you’re asking me if he is back to that form, my answer is going to be no.
And it would be “no” if he posted an identical stat line this week as he did in Week 8. That said, the advanced profile from the breakout looks just as good, if not better, than the raw stat line, and that is why I’m ranking Barkley as a top-5 option at the position this week, even in a difficult matchup on Monday night.
During the first seven weeks of this season, 57.5% of Barkley’s carries saw him gain more yards after contact than the league RB average. That was down from 64.3% a season ago and is a bit of a chicken-and-egg metric.
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If the offensive line blocks better, the running back can get running downhill and pick up more YAC. But not every play will be blocked well, and the ability to excel in those spots is predictive of future success.
That’s why I like this stat. The 65-yard touchdown was an untouched run, and that can skew stats for an entire season in terms of blocking numbers, and the 0 YAC makes that a negative play in the after-contact stats.
By making it a rate stat, we get a zero or a one for every attempt: no one carry is weighed more than any other, thus making it a little more predictive in my eyes.
The Week 8 rate of Barkley was 71.4%.
This is a fresh Eagles offense, and that’s something that we’ve seen thrive in the past. The Packers haven’t played many power run games over the past month-plus, so I’m not overemphasizing their season-long stats: they are impressive, but not overly predictive in this specific situation.
I’d be shocked if Barkley scored multiple times in this game, but I’d be just as surprised if he finishes the week outside the top 15.
You can disagree with my optimism if you want to, but moving him down the ranks a touch isn’t making an actionable difference: you’re still playing him.
DeVonta Smith, WR
I think you have to play either Eagle receiver and take your chances.
Green Bay rarely surrenders production to multiple pass catchers in a game, but they will give up a big WR game every once in a while.
Is it a DeVonta Smith or an AJ Brown week?
Good luck.
They have matching 12.1-yard average depths of target this season, with Smith holding the slight edge (25.5% to 23.5%) in percentage of targets that come deep downfield.
Normally, I’d lean the side of size in a spot like this where I’m chasing the big play, but for every George Pickens/Ja’Marr Chase that has overachieved against the Packers this season, there’s a Deebo Samuel/Rhamondre Stevenson.
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Smith has out-targeted Brown in each of their past two games, but his target variance is a bit higher, and that’s why he’s a middling WR2 for me this week, half a dozen spots lower in my positional ranks.
Dallas Goedert, TE
Is Dallas Goedert the TE version of 2024 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?
It may not be that dramatic, and there’s certainly a value difference because of the position he plays, but this is about as shaky of a profile for any of the options that most appear to be comfortable in locking in.
This season, Goedert has scored on 17.9% of his targets, nearly four times (4.7%) his career rate. He’s doing this with only one end zone opportunity (hasn’t had more than five in a season since 2019) and a target share that is down from 23.1% in 2021 to 20.3%.
I believe that Goedert’s consistent playing time on a strong offense keeps him out of the streaming tier at the position … but not by much.
With no more than four targets in each of Philadelphia’s last four wins, we really don’t have proof that they value him in neutral-to-positive scripts, a situation that I like the Eagles to operate in more often than not moving forward.
He’s a fringe TE1 for me this week because the position gets ugly in a hurry, but I’m terrified of the floor, both this week and for the remainder of the season.
