NFL Player Props Week 12
This time of year, we see a slight drop in traffic, not because of anything we can control; it’s just that, statistically, 2 or 3 fantasy managers in every league are on autopilot, knowing their chances of making the postseason are too far out. Injuries or NFL players falling short of their draft value all contribute to this, but hey, that doesn’t mean you can’t still enjoy NFL Sundays.
There is a slight spike in Sports betting search volume right around Thanksgiving, as those out in their fantasy leagues turn to picking games and player props. Gridiron Experts looks to cater to this crowd in the coming weeks.
The following are my favorite player props for week 12
Alec Pierce
Prop: Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Colts face the Chiefs on Sunday in a pivotal AFC matchup, and wide receiver Alec Pierce is positioned for a productive afternoon.
My game script & prediction: Pierce hits the over on 55 receiving yards as the Chiefs commit to stopping Jonathan Taylor, making the Colts’ passing game the focal point for their success.
This game script is not only plausible but likely given Kansas City’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Chiefs rank 28th in stacked box usage and dead last (32nd) in success rate when they do stack the box. With Taylor leading the NFL with 1,139 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, Steve Spagnuolo will be forced to load the box and prioritize stopping the run.
That’s where Pierce becomes dangerous. Against single-high coverage, Pierce leads the Colts with a 29% target-per-route rate and 3.44 yards per route run. He’s averaging 73.1 yards per game and leads the entire NFL with 20.9 yards per catch. The Chiefs’ outside corners have surrendered the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter receivers since Week 7.
Pierce is coming off consecutive strong performances with 115 yards versus Pittsburgh and 84 yards plus a touchdown against Atlanta. With Daniel Jones healthy and the Colts’ offense ranking fifth in passing yards, expect Pierce to exploit Kansas City’s commitment to stopping Taylor and comfortably exceed 55 receiving yards.
TreVeyon Henderson
Prop: Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
The New England Patriots travel to Cincinnati for a Week 12 matchup against the struggling Bengals, and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is positioned for another explosive performance.
My prediction: Henderson surpasses 53 rushing yards as the Patriots build a big lead early on and lean on their ground game in the second half. While Rhamondre Stevenson is expected back from his toe injury, Henderson has established himself as a dominant force worthy of significant touches. The Patriots enter as heavy favorites at 9-2, winners of eight straight, while the Bengals sit at 3-7 with the worst defense in NFL history by DVOA through 10 games. Cincinnati allows a league-worst 160.9 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. They’re missing top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, while Ja’Marr Chase is suspended.
Henderson has been electric in Stevenson’s absence, rushing for 209 yards and scoring five touchdowns over his last two games, and I don’t think they get away from that. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will call Henderson’s number repeatedly to close out the game, allowing the explosive rookie to eclipse 53 yards easily.
Jameson Williams
Prop: Over 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Detroit Lions host the struggling New York Giants on Sunday, and wide receiver Jameson Williams is positioned for a bounce-back performance after a frustrating loss on Sunday Night Football.
My prediction: Williams hit the over on 60.5 receiving yards as the Lions and Dan Campbell take out their frustrations on a vulnerable Giants secondary. After the 16-9 defeat to Philadelphia, where Detroit went 0-for-5 on fourth down and managed just nine points, expect an angry Lions team ready to unleash their offensive firepower. They’re going to run up the score.
Williams has emerged as a dangerous weapon with Campbell now calling plays. Over his last two games, the fourth-year receiver has posted 10 catches for 207 yards and two touchdowns, including an 88-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Eagles. He averages a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch and has recorded 459 receiving yards from the outside position this season.
The matchup could not be more favorable. The Giants’ defense ranks 29th in points allowed at 27.3 per game and 28th in yards allowed to outside wide receivers. New York has blown four fourth-quarter leads this season and sits dead last in the NFL in takeaways with just six. Their secondary has been atrocious, allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 138.3 in coverage.
With quarterback Jared Goff eager to rebound and the Lions desperate for a statement win before Thanksgiving, Williams profiles as the primary deep threat against a defense that cannot cover. Expect multiple explosive plays that easily push Williams over 60 yards.
Jalen Hurts
Prop: Over 207 passing yards (-110)
The Eagles are 8-2, but the media is acting like they’re 2-8.
The Birds are facing their divisional rival, the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has a terrible secondary. This is a perfect opportunity for Hurts to shut everyone up by getting the offense right by moving the ball through the air. The recent “struggles” on offense stem from several factors: poor play-calling, a banged-up offensive line, and a tough schedule. That said, the Eagles have wins over the Rams (8-1), Lions (6-4), Packers (6-3-1), Bucs (6-4), and Chiefs (5-5). This was not an easy schedule to start the season.
207 passing yards is too low, even if you’re not a Hurts fan. I like the over here.
Good Luck
