DFS Picks Week 10: GPP Lineup Builder Tips

DFS Picks Week 10

Hey all, and welcome to Week 10! Seriously, how is it Week 10 already? It certainly feels like this season is flying by. Week 9 was half decent again. My QB1, Caleb Williams, turned out to be the optimal QB. My best lineup had him, CMC, Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, and Brock Bowers. A player here or a player there, and it’s a winning lineup. 

Reminders:

• The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
• Join Discor — it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.

Let’s dive into it!

We have a three-way tie for the best graded QBs this week. I also have a three-way tie for QB3. That’s more DFS ineups than I want to make, but let’s go through the analysis anyway.

Drake Maye

DFS QB 1A  (8%)

Despite having a bit of a down performance in week 9 by his more recent fantasy standards, Maye is in a very decent spot on paper. Tampa is in the top 10 in the NFL over the last 3 weeks in terms of passing yards allowed. Maye and the Patriots have been quite successful with play-action passing, which is good because the Bucs are one of the worst teams in football against it. Tampa is also letting QBs run against them, 29th in the NFL in rushing yards yielded to QBs. Throw in that every Tampa home game has gone over the total points mark, and as I said, it looks pretty good for Maye. 

I like pairing him with Stefon Diggs (10%) and Hunter Henry (7%), but I also like the idea of taking a shot on rookie Kyle Williams (sub 1%) if Kayshon Boutte sits. Boutte didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Williams is the type of receiver who can step into the role that Boutte has been in. Williams is capable of winning downfield matchups and tracking the ball well. He’s a bit undersized and definitely can be outmatched from a physical perspective, but a long first career TD could be in the cards. That would be nice for his 3K price tag and zero ownership.

One thing that is giving me pause, and that the QB model may not have caught up to yet, is whether Tampa will be able to pressure Maye. The Falcons may have given the league the blueprint for limiting this offense. Atlanta blitzed Maye often in their matchup last week, resulting in 4 sacks and a seriously ill-timed fumble. Maye’s completion percentage dipped to 58% when blitzed. Tampa blitzes at a 30% rate and achieves pressure at around a 50% clip. Tampa could be without LB Hasson Reddick, which could hamper the Bucs’ ability to get to the QB. I will have Maye in some of my lineups, but it’s not an “all-in” scenario.

Jaxson Dart

DFS QB 1B (7%)

I actually think Dart will be higher owned than 7% come Sunday. Since he began starting games in 2025, Dart is QB3, and for some reason, he is still priced below 6K on DraftKings. The only QB not to have a successful fantasy performance against the Bears is Tyler Huntley. I could go into all kinds of details about how Dart performs better when not under pressure and how the Bears are incapable of generating it, but this is simply an excellent spot for Dart. I like him with only 3 of his pass catchers. Wan’Dale Robinson (11 – 13%) is averaging nine targets a game over his last 3. Theo Johnson (6 – 8%) is overwhelmingly Dart’s preferred TE with 43 season targets to Bellinger’s 12. Darius Slayton (6 – 8%) returned to action 2 weeks ago and is averaging six targets a game over a small sample size. My favorite is probably Slayton, as he has more big-play ability, and the other two’s ceilings may be capped if Dart runs in a TD or 2. I expect him to rack up some fantasy points with his legs. Gunner Olszewski’s one freak target for a TD is not something I’m chasing in Week 10.

Caleb Williams

DFS QB 1C – (4%)

On the other side of this game, Caleb should find success as well, for similar reasons as Dart. While it does feel a little like chasing last week’s bonanza, Williams gets a group that struggles, albeit not as much as Chicago, to generate pressure against the QB. Caleb’s splits in terms of being pressured and not being pressured are significant. Williams is showing himself to be a QB who is capable of beating up on inferior opponents. The Giants are also yielding 24 fantasy points per game to QBs.

There’s a little bit of drama surrounding the Bears and Rome Odunze (7%) here in Week 9. Apparently, Daddy Odunze has taken to the interwebs to highlight posts calling for the Bears to trade his son after his 0.0 fantasy performance in an exquisite matchup. Drama aside, I expect a bounce-back week for Odunze after his lowest-targeted (3) game of the year. The Giants could still be down CB Paulson Adebo, adding to the good situation this WR is in. Olamide Zaccheus (6%) and Colston Loveland (4 – 5%) have been seeing their roles increase over the last few weeks, while DJ Moore (3%) has had a steady diet of 5 – 7 targets per game, though he is questionable with a hip issue. I would go no further than double-stacking Williams.

Matt Stafford

DFS QB 2 – (4 – 5%)

Stafford faces a 49ers defense that continues to deal with injuries that have limited its ability to rush the passer. When these teams last faced one another in Week 5, Stafford threw for 389 yards and 3 TDs, and the San Fran defense may actually be weaker now. In that week 5 matchup, the Rams were trailing, so the total yards may be tough to replicate, but Stafford’s TD efficiency has been excellent lately. He has thrown multiple TDs in 6 of the last 7 (no, I’m not referring, tempting though it may be) and three or more in 4 of the previous 5. If stacking with Stafford, it’s pretty obvious to go with Puka Nacua (18 – 20%) and Davonte Adams (5 – 6%), though Nacua has been limited with a rib injury this week at practice. 

One thing that could keep Stafford from popping off now that he’s finally made my list is Kyren Williams (13 – 14%), who has averaged 27.6 fantasy points over his last three games against San Francisco.

If interested in a run back on the opposing side, Christian McCaffrey (25 – 30%) is in play. He put up over 27 PPR fantasy points in this matchup in week 5. It’s CMC’s involvement in the passing attack that is keeping his ceiling high. The grouping of Stafford with Nacua and/or Adams, plus CMC, is quite expensive. Additionally, George Kittle (- 20%) has a nice little history against the LA Rams.

Baker Mayfield

QB 3A – (7%)

New England has a stout run defense, so the path to success is by throwing against them. Also, as noted in the Drake Maye blurb, Tampa’s home games have all gone over. The 48.5 total and close spread suggests a potential back-and-forth environment. My preferred stacking option is Emeka Egbuka (19 – 20%), who is basically WR1 in Tampa right now. New England has been yielding productive fantasy outings to opposing WR1s, including Drake London’s explosion last week. Cade Otton (5 – 6%) historically gets more run when Evans and/or Godwin are out, but it’s hard to predict what he or someone like Tez Johnson (6%) will do with Godwin returning. If Godwin ends up sitting, I like both Otton and Tez more.

One possible problem could be Baker’s lack of success against man coverage, which New England uses at a top-10 rate. Mayfield has a sub-45 % completion rate and a sub-5 yards-per-attempt rate against man coverage. My game script hope in this one would be for the Patriots to jump out to an early lead, putting Baker in a situation where he has to play catch-up in the second half. While I like Maye’s situation a little more, when push comes to shove, Baker will air it out to stay in games. 

Lamar Jackson

DFS QB 3B – (11%)

Excluding the game in which he was hurt, Lamar is averaging 27 fantasy points per game in 2025. Here in Week 10, he gets the Vikings, who are averaging 256 passing yards against over the last three games. This matchup comes down to whether or not Minnesota can generate pressure on Lamar. His kryptonite appears to be man blitzes and Cover Zero schemes, which are at the disposal of the Vikings’ defense. However, Minnesota is just not getting the job done: in their last three matchups, they’ve yielded 19 fantasy points to Jared Goff and 25 each to Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. 

The Ravens took it easy on Lamar’s legs last week against the Dolphins, as he carried the ball just 5 times for 14 yards. I expect the training wheels to come off a little bit in this matchup. If Lamar does end up being the optimal QB, though, he will likely have to go north of 200 passing yards with multiple TDs, as I’m sure there is still some worry about the hamstring. While the target distribution was quite diverse last week against Miami, I’m banking on Lamar to return to earlier-season numbers when targets were heavily skewed toward Zay Flowers (20%). He is my preferred stacking option as opposed to chasing Mark Andrews’ (6%) 2 TDs on two catches. I also don’t hate the idea of playing Lamar naked, since he could get rushing TDs.

For what it’s worth, JJ McCarthy (8%) is the QB in my model 4, with Josh Allen (15%). While Baltimore’s defense has gotten healthier in recent weeks, it is still giving up plenty of passing yards. I love a Justin Jefferson (12%) or Jordan Addison (7%) run back with Lamar.

Davis Mills

DFS QB 3C – (1%)

What a surprise name we have here. The man with the most extended neck in the NFL will be starting for the injured CJ Stroud in Week 10. The Jaguars are 6th in the league in terms of passing yards against, with an average of 249 per game, and just let Geno Smith throw for 4 TDs against them. Bote teams play fast and the spread is very close, at least hinting af a back-and-forth affair. However, the 39.5 total suggests there won’t be a ton of fantasy output here, and the Texans’ defense looks capable of eating Trevor Lawrence alive. If this is the type of game where Mills is asked to be a game manager while the Texan defense completely limits Jacksonville, then this isn’t the play to make.

Still….Mills is relatively cheap at $4500 on DraftKings. If he does something like throw for 200 yards with 3 TDs, then a 20-point fantasy day is pretty good for the price. If it’s a down week for QB scoring, then it could work. Nico Collins (5%), Christian Kirk (3%), and Dalton Schultz (4%) saw 11, 8, and 8 targets each in the week 9 matchup in which Mills replaced Stroud. This is also a revenge game for Kirk. Don’t ever let anyone tell you I don’t have an imagination.

One-Offs

De’Von Achane (25 – 30%) is the key piece of the Dolphins’ offense right now. The Bills are the 5th-worst team against the run this season, but the kicker for PPR scoring is how highly involved Achane is in the passing game. For those playing Allen in DFS this week, or not, Achane makes for both a good running back and solid standalone play, so long as you can afford his $7400 price tag. 

Quinshon Judkins (10%) and the Browns get a Jets defense that is 7th in the league in terms of most rushing yards allowed per game…and that was before they shipped Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams off at the trade deadline. In what is expected to be a slow-paced, low-scoring game, give me Judkins with the Browns defense in Week 10. 

Rico Dowdle (30 – 35%) is the man I wish I had played last week. True to their word, the Carolina coaching staff said they would focus on getting Dowdle the ball and not Chuba Hubbard. New Orleans is top 10 on the season in terms of rushing yards allowed, and they are top 3 over the last 3 weeks. While I am concerned Hubbard might get worked back in, especially as Dowdle is dealing with a quad issue, Dowdle’s ceiling can’t be ignored right now.

Ray Davis (sub 1%) is listed here in case James Cook does not play in Week 10. Unless you’re the Atlanta Falcons, the Dolphins’ defense is a turnstile for opposing rushing attacks. Ray Davis will be a popular play if Cook sits and could be this week’s Kyle Monangai. Ownership systems don’t have a strong hold on James Cook yet, but he’s obviously in a good position as well and will have ownership if he plays, and it looks like he will, as he practiced in full on Friday.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (23 – 25%) actually probably gets better with the addition of Rashid Shaheed (1 – 2%), as teams will be less likely to overplay coverage toward him. In any event, JSN has 79 targets for the season. The next guy is Cooper Kupp (1%) with 33. Tory Horton looks like he might miss this game, meaning that Shaheed could step right in as the deep threat and continue to clear out the area for Smith-Njigba.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (18 – 20%) has a similarly heavily skewed target share. The Commanders have given up close to 300 yards passing, on average, over their last three games. My model isn’t as high on Goff for a variety of reasons, such as the spread not being close and this game being outdoors rather than indoors, but that doesn’t mean the Sun God can’t go for 100 and a TD.

Jaylen Waddle (5 – 7%) has been leading the Dolphins in target share since Tyreek Hill went down. The Bills aren’t exactly a team I would target WRs against, but any given Sunday, right? Weird things tend to happen in divisional matchups. I think Dolphins v Bills will be a little more competitive than most do, but with a November home game in Southeastern Florida, I expect some resistance from the Fish (yes, I know a Dolphin is a mammal). I do prefer Achane from a statistical lens, but over five five grabs, 100 yards, and a TD could be optimal for a $6400 Waddle. 

Garrett Wilson (9%) or Adonai Mitchell (sub 1%) are players I am interested in against a pass-funnel defense. If the Browns defense isn’t able to completely dominate the Jets offense, then that likely means Justin Fields (3%) has been able to establish something with his former Ohio State teammate or newly acquired 2nd WR that the Jets offense has been desperately needing. At low ownership, I don’t mind taking a stab here. So we are clear, though, it is more unlikely than likely that either ends up in an optimal lineup. At this point, Mitchell is someone I am eyeing for 2026, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if a franchise forced a TD on a newly acquired asset to “prove” they were “right.”

Trey McBride (20%) is someone I really like with Jacoby Brissett under center, rather than Kyler Murray. While Marvin Harrison (8%) had a hell of a week against Dallas on Monday night, McBride wasn’t far behind. Since Brissett has taken over, McBride has averaged 11 targets a game and 11 total red zone targets. The Seahawks are the 13th-worst team against the TE spot and gave up seven grabs for 52 yards to McBride in their previous matchup against the Cards when Kyler was at the helm.

Sam LaPorta (11 – 12%) is where I wouldn’t mind going if I can’t get Amon-Ra into my lineups. The Commanders are not good against the TE position, and despite what OC John Morton says about getting Jameson Williams (9%) and Isaac TeSlaa (sub 1%) more involved, the numbers suggest this offense is running through St. Brown, Gibbs, and LaPorta, at least for the time being.

Zach Ertz (4%) gets a lot of attention when Marcus Mariota (5%) is at QB. He is getting 6 or 7 (there it is again!) targets per game when Mariota starts. At $4K, what we are really hoping for is a TD. As such, I would prefer to get to LaPorta or McBride, or pair my TE with my QB, but you could do worse than 4 for 50 and a score out of Ertz. Zach is 2nd overall on the team with 44 targets this year.

David Njoku (5%) is of interest to me if Harold Fannin sits. Dillon Gabriel’s favorite targets are his TEs. The Jets are middle of the road in the NFL in terms of rank against the TE spot. Regardless of whether or not he makes my DFS lineups, an Njoku anytime TD intrigues me. I would expect his ownership to increase if Fannin is ruled out.