DFS Picks Week 13: GPP Lineup Builder Tips

DFS Picks Week 13

Hey all, and welcome to Week 13! The QB model did decently in week 12, nailing Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Jacoby Brissett, but it was not on Jameis Winston or Cam Ward, who had career days. This week’s article is going to be a little shorter than most, as the model does not like too many QBs on the main slate since many of the better environments were/are on different days. 

Reminders:

• The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
• Join Discord — it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.

Let’s dive into it!

QB 1 – Josh Allen (8%)

Two weeks ago, Allen came out and annihilated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This was on the heels of Buffalo’s bad loss against Miami. We have a similar scenario here in that Allen is coming off a loss to the Texans, a game that was one of Allen’s worst of the season. Part of the reason for Allen’s poor play is the pressure Houston dialed up, including eight sacks. Pittsburgh’s defense basically relies on pressure. Like many other defenses, they are pretty successful when they achieve pressure, and quite terrible when they don’t.

Overall, Pittsburgh is allowing an average of 258.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. While the model clearly likes Allen, I wouldn’t expect another 6 TD game from Josh. The Bills could be without two of their starting offensive linemen, which could make it easier for TJ Watt and company to get to the QB. I do like Pittsburgh’s ability to score against this defense, so Allen should be forced to move the offense. I like Jaylen Warren (5 – 8%) or Kenneth Gainwell (3 – 5%) against this porous run defense. Khalik Shakir (12%) is the obvious pairing with Allen, but Dalton Kincaid (?) could return for this one, and the Steelers aren’t all that great against the TE spot. Allen’s home/road splits are interesting, aka not that good when he is on the road, but Caleb Williams just had success against this defense.

QB2 – Jacoby Brissett (7 – 10%)

Because the starting QB position has been up in the air for Tampa, the opening total score of 48.5 shrank to 43.5 by mid-week but is up to 44.5 with Baker Mayfield likely to play. As you’ll see below, I don’t much care who the Tampa starter is here, as points should be scored through the air. Tampa has a solid run defense and a subpar pass rush, and Brissett has been slinging the rock well above league average. In his six starts, Brissett has no game with fewer than 37 pass attempts, including 58 last week. While the Cardinals ‘ offensive line has been allowing pressure, Tampa should make life easier on this pass-block group. Blocking is two variables at play in this matchup for me. First is the potential return of Marvin Harrison, Jr. (?), who has been limited in practice this week. If Harrison suits up, then that could affect Michael Wilson (7 – 11%) and Greg Dortch (3%). It shouldn’t affect Trey McBride (6%), though Tampa’s stats against the TE position are pretty good. The other variable is CB Jamal Dean, who looks like he should return. When Dean is on the field, Tampa’s passing defense statistics are improved; not great, but improved. 

QB3 – Baker Mayfield (6%) / Teddy Bridgewater (sub 3%)

As stated, I don’t really care who plays QB for Tampa this weekend, though it does look like Baker is trending toward playing after logging a full practice on Friday. Obviously, I believe Baker is the better actual QB, but either QB can find some fantasy success or at least be forced to throw or keep Brissett throwing, which will translate to fantasy points. Arizona has given up three passing TDs in its last games as Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence found success against the Cardinals. 

When Bridgewater entered the game last Sunday against the Rams, his biggest completion was a 3232-yardero Emeka Egbuka (11%), which gives me faith in starting Egbuka with either QB or as a running back in Brissett stacks. After that, the waters get a little murkier. Cade Otton (3 – 5%) continued to see targets in week 12 despite the return of Chris Godwin (3%). Sterling Shepard (sub 1%) saw five thrown his way, while Tez Johnson (3 – 4%) received five targets as well. If Baker is not under center, then I’m out on Shepard and their college connection. After Egbuka, Otton would be my preferred pairing with Godn a,nandohnson would likely be a minimum ITD catch to be optimal, which is probably a long shot.

It should be noted that Bucky Irving (6%) is likely to return in this one, and I don’t mind running him back in Brissett stacks either.

One-Offs

• Bijan Robinson (18 – 20%) faces the Jets defense, which has been a little more inspired of late and isn’t allowing many rushing yards per game, but Bijan is different, as evidenced by his performances over the last 2 weeks.
• De’Von Achane (38 – 45%) is fresh off the bye and goes up against a Saints defense that is averaging over 120 rushing yards per game both on the year and over their last 3threegames. Achane has been on the field for 80% or more of his team’s snaps over their previous games. For game theory enthusiasts, he is the fade to make.
• Kyren Williams (10 – 12%) is someone whose ceiling is in play, but I could also put Puka Nacua (15 – 20%) and Davante Adams (10%) here, as it is likely one of them has a great day against Carolina. The Panthers are the 55th-worst team against opposing RBs, which I like here in Week 13 since I won’t be playing Matthew Stafford (5%).
• Travis Etienne (8 – 9%) has been getting a steady volume of late, but he has yet to have a nuclear game. We… well, least, haven’t seen the full involvement I expected from Etienne in HC Liam Coen’s offense, but he cobe uheldebackked for the final leg of the regular season.
• Breece Hall (25 – 30%) and the Jets welcome the Atlanta Falcons into town. While MetLife Stadium will probably claim the ACLs and MCLs of a handful of players, the Falcons are the 3rd worst team against the RB position. They’ve allowed 156 yards on average over their last 3threegames.
• Devin Neal (20%) should be a popular play as he looks to be in line to start with Alvin Kamara ruled out. In fact, I have him listed as 20% as most ownership projections don’t have him over 15% yet. The Dolphins are allowing 142 yards per game on the season, including 172 in their most recent tilt.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20%). If you can afford him, start him. #ExcellentAnalysis.
• Ladd McConkey (10%) and the Chargers are still missing their two best linemen, but they face a Raiders defense that can’t get to the QB. I expect them to lean into quick passes, especially after considering their awful showing in week 11 against Jacksonville. I’ll be using Keenan Allen (7 – 8%) for a similar reason.
• Chris Olave (15 – 18%) has been a favorite target of Tyler Shough (5%), including 13 targets in week 12. You tell me someone is getting 13 targets, I’m telling you I’m playing him. While 13 exact targets are unlikely, double digits are not out of the question. Olave has been limited at practice this week, so make sure to monitor his availability. Also, should he sit, bump the other WRs on this list up a bit in terms of ownership.
• Darnell Mooney (5%) is of interest to me if Drake London sits again. London logged DNPs on both Wednesday and Thursday, so that’s looking likely. $5300 is bordering on being too pricey for Mooney in terms of his ceiling being high enough for him to be optimal.
• Jauan Jennings (9%) looks to be Brock Purdy’s (2%) top WR right now. I am purposely leaving CMC (12%) out of my player pool this week, as the Browns boast a solid run defense. It’s in the passing game where Cleveland can be beaten, which is where I expect San Francisco to turn to in Week 13. That said, CMC looks like a contrarian play this week, if you want to go that route in deep tournaments.
• George Kittle (5 – 8%) is a TE I’ll play if I’m not playing Jennings. It’s tough to tell which Kittle we will get from week to week, blocking or receiving, but this could be a week where the Niners turn to him.
• Oronde Gadsen (15-20%) has gone quiet in recent weeks. As stated, I expect the Chargers to return to their quick-hitting passing game, where someone like Ladd or Oronde can get there in DraftKings scoring via receptions.
• Juwan Johnson (4%) has also been a popular weapon for Tyler Shough. Miami is 5th in terms of points allowed to opposing TEs.