DFS Picks Week 14: GPP Lineup Builder Tips

DFS Picks Week 15

Hey all, and welcome to Week 15! The QB model performed well in Week 14, identifying QB1 Josh Allen. Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford also had good days, helping some folks get some money. We’re going to do things a little differently today, as the model likes a lot of QBs this week, but they’re all in 4 different games. So, rather than highlighting the top QBs, I’ll highlight the top environments with shootout potential.

Reminders:

• The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
• Join Discord — it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.

Let’s dive into it!

Game #1 – Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

Commanders -1.5 | Over/Under 47.5

Marcus Mariota (5%) is in line to start again after Mr. Glass – I mean Jayden Daniels re-injured his elbow. While the Commanders posted a dud of a game against Minnesota last week, I like their offense to rebound in this matchup. The Giants are allowing 385.8 yards per game, good for 31st in the NFL. They are giving up 7 yards per pass attempt and four fantasy rushing points per game. Mariota is using his legs, as are his talented WRs. Terry McLaurin (10%) and Deebo Samuel (4%) led Washington in targets last week with six each. In week 13, McLaurin had 14(!!) targets. With no Zach Ertz on the field, I expect Mariota to target both of these players heavily. Noah Brown (2%), Ben Sinnott (sub-1 %), and John Bates (sub-1 %) are lottery-ticket players.

Washington is right behind New York in yards allowed per game with 382.5. Over the last 6 weeks, they have all but abandoned man coverage and play zone over 85% of the time. Jaxson Dart (9%) has some nice numbers against zone coverage. Wan’Dale Robinson (15%) will play out of the slot in this matchup and has a very favorable matchup against slot CB Noah Igbinoghene. He overwhelmingly leads this team in targets. The Commanders have also been bleeding fantasy points to outside WRs, so Darius Slayton (1%) could finally come through with that long TD.

I do have concerns about Dart’s rushing upside and his overall ceiling in this one, as he had no signed runs against New England a couple of weeks ago. If I’m the Giants’ front office, I’m doing whatever I can to develop Jaxson Dart into a franchise QB, whilst protecting him as best I can. Having him run all over the place in a lost season is one such thing I would try to avoid. That said, Dart has a penchant for scrambling, so he will still probably accrue a few points with his legs. On top of that, the Giants only let Dart throw the ball 24 times despite the trailing game script vs New England. While the stats, the betting lines, and the schemes all suggest a possible shootout here, New York potentially taking a knee on the season is in play. 

If you wanted to attack this match with the run game, I totally understand. I don’t know which back will be featured here. Chris Rodriguez (3%) has been a limited participant in practice this week, and Tyrone Tracy (7%) has been a full participant.

Game #2 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Ravens -3 | Over/Under 52.5

We finally saw Lamar Jackson (7 – 10%) actually run the ball a bit against Pittsburgh as he had seven attempts for 43 yards and a rushing score. If Lamar is to be the optimal QB, then he probably will need to use his legs a bit in this matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati is giving up the second-most passing yards per game, and they allow over 20 rushing yards per game to the QB position. While Lamar didn’t play well in this Thanksgiving matchup, his play last week was an encouraging sign, and several plays could have gone the other way for Baltimore. If I’m looking to pair Lamar with a pass catcher, I will start with the TEs: Mark Andrews (10%) and Isaiah Likely (3%), who both almost had TDs on Turkey Day. Cincinnati is the worst team against the TE position. 

On the other side, we have Joe Burrow (5%), who has established a nice little habit of throwing all over this Ravens team. Burrow is averaging 296 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per game against Baltimore. While the Ravens defense is playing a little better than iitdid at the beginning of thseason, it it isstill giving up passing yards to the tune of 253 game ame, including 284 to Aaron Rodgers last week. Burrow also looked much better last week after his first game back 2 weeks ago. Ja’Marr Chase (20 – 25%) is the obvious pairing with Burrow. The only problem here is that Burrow’s stats drop when Tee Higgins is out of the lineup, which he won’t be in Week 15. Andrei Iosivas (?) and Mitchell Tinsley (?) will see increased snaps and targets. When Higgins missed 2 weeks ago, it was Tinsley who saw nine targets to Iosivas’s 2. Mike Gesicki (3%) is only on the field about 40% of the time, but he gets the most targets out of this TE group.

Game #3 – Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Bills -1.5 | Over/Under 50.5

The model likes Josh Allen (3-4%) again this week, but I would temper expectations for a repeat of his last game. For one, the Patriots’ defense is not the Bengals’ defense, and this is a road game for Allen, who has performed much better at home this season. Still, Allen had 19.4 fantasy points against New England in Week 5, and this will be the second time they play the Patriots, so hopefully Sean McDermott and Joe Brady have learned a thing or two about how to attack this squad. The winning lineup in my GPP contest last week played Josh Allen without any of his pass catchers, something I argued was doable. It could be in play again, as Allen did have 53 rushing yards against New England last time. To be optimal, Allen will have to use his legs and likely score a rushing TD or 2. 

Drake Maye (3%) grades out well, also, though every QB I have mentioned thus far looks better. Maye hasn’t had a ceiling performance in some time as this Patriots offense has achieved a nice balance of rushing and passing. However, Maye has one of the safest floors among QBs in 2025, as he has just one game below 15 fantasy points; that one game just so happened to be against these Bills. My decision to play Maye or not rests entirely on whether Joey Bosaplaysy in this matchup, and it looks like he will. Put simply, Buffalo generates QB pressure when he plays, and they do not when he sits. I do like the idea of stacking Stefon Diggs (3%) and hoping for another revenge game for him, but I may get creative and go with the Mack Hollins (2%) revenge game narrative instead. The WR targets have been all over the place for New England in recent weeks, but it is Hollins and Kayshon Boutte (?) who are seeing the majority of snaps lately. Hunter Henry (3%) has been consistent with both snap share and targets, but the Bills are one of the better teams against the TE position.

Game #4 – Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams

Rams -4.5 | Over/Under 55.5

I am interested in stacking this game, but I am not interested in rostering Jared Goff (3%) as Sean McVay and the Rams defense should be able to limit what he can do here. I do like Jahmyr Gibbs (17%), though, because the Lions have the potential to get to the edge of this Rams defensive line, and once there, Gibbs can explode. 

The quarterback my model likes is Matthew Stafford (10%), the league leader in passing TDs. The Lions’ secondary has incurred multiple injuries. As a result, they are the worst team in football against the pass over the last 3 weeks, averaging 318 passing yards a game. Puka Nacua’s (20-25%) target share has notably risen in the previous 3 weeks, but it continues to be Davante Adams (10%) who receives the red-zone opportunities. Either receiver could find himself in the optimal lineup for Week 15. 

One-Offs

• Josh Jacobs (6%) looks like he has a bad matchup on paper. However, the Broncos have shown they are susceptible to downhill rushing attacks. Jacobs is the type of back who can run over people, break tackles, and hit the second level. Should he play, I would give him a high likelihood of one or two breakaway runs. I like Emmanuel Wilson less if he ends up being the starter.
• Travis Etienne (10%) seems only to perform well when I don’t play him. Since his week 8 bye, Etienne has not had a game below 15 fantasy points, except when I played him in week 13. The Jets are the 2nd worst team against the RB position. This is what they call a “smash” spot. 
• Woody Marks (25%) is someone I am mentioning here due to his high ownership. Nick Chubb may or may not play in this one, which would leave Mark as the primary back against the 3rd-worst team against the RB spot. Additionally, the Cardinals just gave up 249 rushing yards to the Rams. While Marks is likely a lock for cash games, fading him in GPPs could give you a huge leg up on the field.
• Nico Collins (15%) has been rising to the top, like cream. He is the primary receiving weapon for the Texans, and despite CJ Stroud’s struggles, he has continued to produce. He is the clear target hog on this team, and he faces a Cardinals defense that has been surrendering a good amount of production through the air lately.
• Michael Wilson (12%) has been a potential league winner in seasonal formats this year. With Marvin Harrison missing another game, Wilson could go off again in what is likely a trailing game script. You can say the same about Trey McBride (3%), but good luck fitting in his $7400 salary.
• A San Francisco Pass Catcher will likely go off this week. The Tennessee Titans have recently become quite stout against the run. CMC (20 – 25%) is in play solely due to his pass-catching prowess, but one of Jauan Jennings (15%), Ricky Pearsall (2%), or George Kittle (13%) is going to go off in this matchup. Per usual, my favorite is the one with fewer owners. 
• Harold Fannin (15 – 20%) is looking more and more like a star. This week, he should receive an increase in targets with David Njoku out. Beyond Fannin, I’m likely stacking my TE with my QB or using one from the four games listed above.