DFS Picks Week 17
Hey all, and welcome to Week 17! The QB model nailed the top QB on the week 16 slate with Justin Herbert, but everything below him was a bit of a hot mess, which I thought could be the case. This week, the QB situation looks pretty straightforward as the model only likes a handful. Additionally, this is the time of year when we want to begin looking at which players and teams are playing for. Teams are motivated by playoff or draft-pick possibilities, maybe even bragging rights, whilst players are motivated by contract incentives as well as the potential for record-setting. I’ll be factoring those things in this week.
Reminders:
- This article is for the Sunday slate only. I have not included the Saturday games.
- The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
- Join Discord — it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.
Let’s dive into it!
QB 1 – Trevor Lawrence (18 – 20%)
Lawrence is in the middle of a heater as we roll toward the end of the regular season. At 11-4, the Jags are poised to lock up the division with a win over the reeling Colts. While Philip Rivers and his pals are looking at only a 3% chance of making the playoffs with a win here, the divisional nature of this tilt makes me think there will be some competition. Brock Purdy just put up over 30 fantasy points against this Indy defense, which has struggled all season. Over their past three games, Indy has allowed an average of 269 passing yards, including nearly 300 against San Fran. Over his past six games, Lawrence has been a top-10 QB in every game. What sells me the most is the performance he just had against a stout Broncos defense. Jacksonville’s defense gave up 344 passing yards last week, showing that they can yield production as well, and we’re hoping that Rivers and company can have a little, which would keep Lawrence moving the offense. I like stacking Lawrence with Jakobi Meyers (30%), Brian Thomas, Jr. (8%), and even Travis Etienne (13%). That 20% ownership is quite the price tag, though. If we dialed this back 8 weeks ago, who would play Lawrence at 20% ownership?
QB 2 – Joe Burrow (11%) & Jacoby Brissett (8%)
A tie at QB2, and they are both in the same game. The total in this one is 53.5, the highest on the docket, making it a popular destination for DFS players. Burrow just had his best game of the season against the Dolphins. Arizona is another defense that has been bleeding points as of late and is extremely banged up. Additionally, Joe Burrow does a lot of things well in situations like this gam, including being at home, playing against a predominantly cover-4 defense, and having Tee Higgins (10%) on the field. Higgins will look to keep his streak of 9 straight home games with a TD alive. Ja’Marr Chase (25 – 30%) will be seeing a lot of rookie CB Will Johnson, who has struggled in recent weeks, in this matchup. The Cards are also bad against the TE spot, so don’t rule out Mike Gesicki (6%). A winning GPP lineup had both Burrow and Chris Brown (8 – 10%) in the same lineup. While that feels like chasing, I can’t rule out the possibility that I will work out again.
On the other side, Brissett keeps chucking the ball, though he only had 31 attempts last week. Lately, we have had no idea what to expect from the Bengals’ defense, but a soft matchup against a struggling Dolphins offense probably helped make the Cincy defensive stats look a little better. However, the Bengals are still 30th in passing points allowed per attempt, have allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and sport a 5.9% TD rate. If Brissett posts another volume-heavy outing, which I expect in a likely trailing game script, he could be another top-scoring QB this week. Arizona went TE heavy against the Falcons as both Trey McBride (25 – 30%) and Elijah Higgins (1 -2%) received eight targets. I wouldn’t expect that again. Instead, I would expect Michael Wilson (3 – 5%) to receive more than the three targets he got against Atlanta, though I would prefer the play if Marvin Harrison, Jr. (4 – 5%) were not on the field. My favorite play, though, is McBride, who is 8 catches away from the most by a TE in a season in NFL history. It helps that Cincinnati is the 2nd worst team against TEs.
QB 3 – Baker Mayfield (4%)
As stated, Joe Burrow had his best game of the season against Miami last week; Baker and the Bucs face the same Dolphins in Week 17. While Baker and the Bucs offense have not been able to recapture their early-season success here in the back half of the regular season, the matchup suggests a possible high-scoring week for Tampa, which needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt after a pivotal loss to Carolina in week 16. The Dolphins are yielding a league-high 71.5% completion rate and a 7.5 yards-per-pass-attempt rate. The tricky thing about Baker is who to pair him with, as Mike Evans (13 – 15%), Chris Godwin (6%), and Emeka Egbuka (2%) all have the role and talent to be optimal. Evans has been the target hog of the three recently, but they all have similar snap shares, and Egbuka and Godwin have been flip-flopping as the WR with the 2nd-highest target share. Per usual, I like the lower-owned one.
The thing that gives me pause is that Miami doesn’t have much to play for, unless you count Mike McDaniel’s job security. That said, Burrow still went bananas without the Dolphins being much of a threat last week.
Honorable Mention – Sam Darnold (4%)
While the model doesn’t really like him, the human factor has to come in here. Darnold is on the doorstep of $2 million in incentives. The Seahawks will move one step closer to securing the number one overall seed and a first-round bye with a win over Carolina on Sunday. 4 more passing TDs get Darnold $500,000. Two hundred ninety-seven passing yards gets him another $500,000. If he increases his completion percentage by .3% he will garner another $500,000. Lastly, a 100% passer rating gets him yet another $500,000; his current rating is 100.6%. Throw in the revenge game narrative as Darnold faces one of his former teams, and this could be a ceiling performance for the QB. Jaxson Smith-Njigba (15 – 18% ) is my (and everyone else’s) favorite stacking option with Darnold.
Carolina also needs a win in this game to stay ahead of Tampa Bay, so it should be a competitive affair. Rico Dowdle (4 – 5 %) does have a tough matchup, but 70 more scrimmage yards yields a million-dollar bonus for the RB. Additionally, another TD will net him $250,000. Let’s say he achieves those things; then that’s a 13-point floor.
One-Offs
- Saquon Barkley (10%) will receive a $250,000 bonus if he racks up 155 more scrimmage yards. The Buffalo Bills’ defense has been susceptible to the ground attack all season, and I can definitely see a scenario where Philadelphia helps him achieve this in Week 17 so they can sit him in Week 18 before the playoffs, just like they did last year.
- James Cook (10%) is in play against an Eagles team that can be run on. Cook is probably the most reliable Bills player now that Josh Allen’5-pointnt performance wasn’t enough to get me to the seasonal championship (I’m not bitter). Cook has had performances of 20 fantasy points or better in 5 of his last 6.
- Ashton Jeanty (30 – 40%) definitely feels like chasing last week’s performance, but there is no denying that the G-Men are bad against the run. I am considering a fade here due to ownership, but Jeanty is likely around 100 yards, and his red zone involvement is higher with no Brock Bowers on the field.
- Tony Pollard (5%) has had increased involvement in the Tennessee offense of late. He’s gone over 100 rushing yards in 3 straight games. The Saints are middle of the road against the RB position, but at $5500 on DraftKings, Pollard could get there on volume and hopefully find the end zone at least once.
- Chris Olave (15%) could be in for another spike week against a pass funnel Titans squad. Tennessee is in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. While back-to-back weeks as an optimal WR may be unlikely for Olave, the statistics do suggest that it is possible.
- Stefon Diggs (12 – 15%) needs four catches to trigger a $500,000 bonus. The Jets’ defense is not one to be feared, as they are averaging 259 passing yards per game over their last 3, including 328 in their previous matchup against the Saints. In his previous matchup against New York, Diggs had nine grabs for 105 yards. It also helps that Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte will miss this game.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3 – 4%) is likely to see a bigger role with DK Metcalf suspended for Week 17. MVS could benefit from his prior relationship with QB Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers could use a win to help ensure their playoff hopes. Rodgers has been good against single-high coverage this year, which is what the Browns frequently employ.
- Hunter Henry (5 – 6%) is also part of a New England Patriots organization that likes to dangle incentives. His contract calls for a $250,000 bonus if he has 3,000 more receptions and reaches 55. He also gets another $250,000 if he hits 60, and yet another $250,000 if he gets to 65. Against the Jets, I would say a possible TD is in play as well.
- Juwan Johnson (6%) gets a Tennessee defense that is top 10 in fantasy points allowed to the TE position. Johnson sure looks like Shough’s second-favorite target of late.
- Dawson Knox (2%) will get $100,000 with one more catch, another $100,000 for 37 more receiving yards, and yet another $100,000 for a TD. While that may not be optimal, knowing these things could help if we need to punt on the TE position.
