Head-to-Head and Prediction for China Open 2025

The stage is set in Beijing, where Alex de Minaur and Jakub Mensik will contest a high-stakes quarterfinal at the China Open. De Minaur secured this spot by defeating Arthur Rinderknech in a tight three-setter, ending with a final scoreline of 6-3, 3-6, 7-6. So far in the 2025 season, de Minaur has had a mix of highs and grinding battles.

Conversely, Mensik advanced past Arthur Cazaux 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, using tenacity under pressure. His 2025 breakout has been one of the more compelling stories on tour. His defining moment was winning the Miami Open, where he stunned Novak Djokovic in the final via two tiebreaks (7-6, 7-6) to claim his maiden ATP title. That feat vaulted him up the rankings, securing a career-high and marking him as a rising force to watch.

Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Match Details

Date: September 29, 2025

Tournament: China Open 2025

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Outdoor Hard Court

Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TVA, TSN, ESPN International

De Minaur vs Mensik Head-to-Head

As of the latest data, Alex de Minaur and Jakub Mensik have met twice at the ATP / tour level, with de Minaur leading 2-0 in their head-to-head. Their matches totaled 5 sets, of which de Minaur won 4 and Mensik 1.

Their most recent clash was recorded during the 2025 ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam, in the second round, where de Minaur prevailed 6-4, 6-4.

De Minaur vs. Mensik Prediction

Alex de Minaur‘s defensive skills, ability to absorb pace, and counterpunching make him a tough opponent to break. According to his ATP profile, de Minaur’s serve statistics include 1,662 aces, 1,118 double faults, a 1st serve in percentage of 58%, 1st serve points won 71%, and 2nd serve points won 54% across his career. He also faces many break point opportunities but saves around 61%.

Over his career, he has won around 80% of his service games (from his ATP stats overview). On the return side, de Minaur is a strong retriever and tends to push his opponents into errors, so even if his serve is not dominant, his match rhythm and court coverage work heavily in his favor.

Alex de Minaur.

What in the name of the Tennis Gods was that.

Defense out of this WORLD.

🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

pic.twitter.com/jxX6BjdOUP

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 3, 2025

Jakub Mensik shows a more aggressive serving profile, especially for a player of his age. His 2025 serve stats are listed: first serve percentage of 53%, first-serve points won 76%, second-serve points won 49%. His career service games won is about 82%, with seasonal service games won around 86%.

Further detailed service trends show that across his matches, his first-serve win percentage is 78%, his second-serve 50.1 %, and he wins about 66.6% of total service points. That means when Mensik is on, his serve can carry him, but his second serve is a more vulnerable area. On hard courts in 2025, Mensik has a record of 18-10 with further hopes ahead.

While De Minaur’s strength lies in neutralizing pace, extending rallies, and turning defense into offense, Mensik will want to assert himself early with aggressive serving and push de Minaur out of his comfort zone.

Prediction: de Minaur to win in three sets