Lando Norris’ Title Charge Hits a Warning Sign As A Worrying Stat Exposes McLaren’s Slip

McLaren’s late-long momentum has sparked strong chances of a 2025 title push for Lando Norris, but new data hints at a concerning trend. Norris and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri have been widely hailed as the biggest emerging threats to Max Verstappen’s dominance, but new data suggests the team may be stalling at the worst possible moment.

While the team’s race pace and strategy have improved dramatically over the past two seasons, a fresh analysis of qualifying paints a far more concerning picture.

McLaren’s Regression Comes at the Worst Possible Time for Lando Norris

While most of the grid tightened their qualifying pace in the second half of the season, McLaren’s numbers show the opposite. Data has revealed that the ‘Papaya’ colored team slipped backward while almost everyone else found more speed.

An F1 analytics page on X highlighted that, as most teams closed the gap to pole over the season, McLaren was one of only two teams that actually drifted further away. For a team with both drivers challenging for the driver championship, the numbers paint a warning sign rather than a comfort.

The data brief showed, “McLaren, Alpine: the only two #F1 teams that got farther from pole as the season went on! Everyone else closed the gap; Haas clawed back over a third of its deficit. In the 2nd half, Racing Bulls overtook Williams, while Alpine went from 7th to last! Ferrari improved more (0.18% closer) than Mercedes (0.09%), who did better than RBR (0.03%): the top 4 teams got much closer by the season’s end.”

This trend is especially worrying for Norris as he sits atop the points standings. Qualifying is the foundation of modern F1 success as track position defines strategy, tire life, and race dynamics.

McLaren began the year within striking distance of pole. However, they increased their deficit from 0.11% in the first half to 0.40% in the second half, signalling a sharp drop in qualifying competitiveness. Meanwhile, Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari all improved. Red Bull went from 0.04% to 0.37%, Mercedes from 0.50% to 0.41% and Ferrari from 0.62% to 0.44% as the season progressed.

While the data does not doom McLaren, it does deliver an unmistakable warning that the championship is moving fast, and the Woking-based outfit cannot afford to fall behind now.

Norris is currently delivering the best season of his F1 career, but if the team cannot recapture the qualifying gains that defined its mid-season surge, a title challenge becomes significantly harder, especially with Verstappen still in the race.