NFL Best Bets: Week 18
With the calendar flipping to a new year, it felt like the right time for a few NFL betting resolutions. Experience suggests they won’t last long, but that won’t stop me from convincing myself, at least for a week, that this time might be different. First, I resolve to not overreact to one bad beat anymore. Unless it involves a missed extra point, a phantom penalty, or a coach who has clearly doesn’t care about the spread, then yes, I absolutely will overreact.
I also resolve not to blindly bet on a team just because they look great on paper. Records, advanced stats, playoff scenarios, it all makes sense until kickoff, when it turns out football is played on a field and not in a spreadsheet. Another resolution: stop saying “this number is wrong” out loud, as if Vegas hasn’t been doing this a little longer and much better than I have.
I’d also love to stop fading teams just because they burned me once. I understand that’s my own personal issues and not sound analysis. Even so, some teams absolutely earn that treatment, and I reserve the right to keep doing it if they continue to burn me.
Then there’s the word “sharp,” which I promise not to use just because I saw it on Twitter/X, especially when the account saying it has a cartoon animal for a profile picture.
In the end, Week 18 exists for one reason, to humble us. It will succeed, as it always does, and we’ll still fire anyway.
With the New Year’s resolutions officially acknowledged, and two of them already broken before this article is published, let’s look back at what actually worked in 2025:
Team-level data shows that the best teams were often still underpriced. The Rams, Seahawks, Jaguars, Patriots, 49ers, Bears, and Eagles all won at least 11 games straight up, yet still covered between 62 and 69 percent of the time. The market was slow to fully catch up, even as the wins piled up.
On the other end, the most popular teams told a different story. The Cowboys, Chiefs, Lions, Packers, Bills, and Ravens all finished below .500 ATS. That’s not a knock on the teams themselves, but a reminder that the books know exactly how much the public likes to bet on them, and they price that demand accordingly.
Week 18 is always tricky, with teams resting starters and numbers that don’t always make sense at first glance. That’s why line movement matters even more than usual this week. It’s often the clearest signal we get.
BEST BETS
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
The Giants +4 sets up as a solid Week 18 spot mostly because of how these games tend to play out. Late-season divisional matchups usually compress scoring margins and create more variance than the market is comfortable with, and Dallas is a team that often comes with a public premium baked into the number. On the other side, the Giants don’t draw much public money, which allows the number to creep higher than it otherwise would.
This week also tends to produce some odd game scripts. Rotations aren’t always clean, play-calling gets conservative, and games can feel a little disjointed. That generally works in the underdog’s favor, especially in a rivalry that has a long history of staying closer than expected.
From a football standpoint, New York’s defensive front and pressure packages can disrupt a rhythm-based Cowboys offense, and the Giants’ run-heavy, ball-control approach naturally shortens games. That combination makes laying more than a field goal more than I’m comfortable with.
Pick: Giants +4
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The biggest factor here is availability. Philadelphia is locked into its playoff position and is expected to rest some key starters, including Jalen Hurts. A version of the Eagles without their primary offensive pieces doesn’t deserve to be laying more than a field goal.
That also levels the quarterback matchup. Washington may not be at full strength under center either, but backup-to-backup scenarios tend to reduce spreads. When offensive efficiency drops on both sides, points become more valuable, so getting +4.5 is good value.
Motivation also tilts toward the underdog. The Commanders don’t have draft positioning to manipulate and have shown a willingness to compete rather than shut things down. From a matchup standpoint, Washington’s defensive profile is built to keep games from getting away. Pressure up front and a willingness to play physically shorten games and limit explosive scoring.
The Eagles are a good team that the sportsbooks have been undervaluing much of the season, but I don’t think this line has dropped enough for a meaningless game.
Pick: Commanders +4.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
The appeal here is the number, first and foremost. +11.5 is a lot of points to lay in an NFL game, especially against a team that isn’t built to create separation. New England’s offensive identity leans conservative and clock-driven, which makes covering double digits far more difficult than the spread implies.
Game flow also works in Miami’s favor. When the Patriots get ahead, they tend to shift into ball-control mode rather than pressing for margin. That leads to long drives, fewer possessions, and plenty of opportunity for a big underdog to hang around.
Unlike smaller underdog numbers, +11.5 protects against almost every common outcome. A controlled New England win, a late touchdown, or a field goal in the final minutes all still land on the right side of the number.
I think this game will be much closer than people expect.
Pick: Dolphins +11.5
