Monday Night Football Preview: Buccaneers at Lions

When the injury-ravaged meet under the Monday Night lights, resilience becomes currency—and both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions have been writing checks their rosters shouldn’t be able to cash.

The 5-1 Buccaneers arrive at Ford Field carrying the NFC’s best record into a hostile environment against a 4-2 Lions team still seething from last week’s 30-17 loss to Kansas City. This isn’t just another Monday Night Football showcase—it’s a potential playoff preview between two teams that have defied the odds despite missing key pieces across their rosters.

Tampa Bay enters riding a two-game winning streak after victories over Seattle (38-35) and San Francisco (30-19), though their only blemish came in Week 4 against the defending champion Eagles (31-23). The Lions, meanwhile, had rattled off four straight wins before getting dominated by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Both teams sit atop their respective divisions, and with the NFC playoff picture tightening by the week, tonight’s winner gains crucial tiebreaker leverage for postseason seeding.

What Are The Odds?

The Detroit Lions are favored in this contest by 5.5 points, which is down slightly from the opening line where the Lions were favored by 6. Overall this should be a great game to find prop bets to target. The over/under in the game is 53.5, which is the second highest total of the week, just slightly behind the Washington/Dallas Game.  If you’re thinking about wagering on this game tonight, make sure you research what sportsbooks are availabe in your area. Try to find one that has a good first time sign up bonus and no verification needed with every login. Also remember to use your game sense

Quarterback Duel: Baker Mayfield is building an MVP resume through sheer force of will. The Bucs signal-caller leads the NFL with four fourth-quarter comebacks in 2025, and Tampa Bay became the first team in history to win four of their first five games with all victories coming by three points or fewer. Against Seattle in Week 5, Mayfield completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards—becoming just the third quarterback alongside Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning to throw for 375+ yards with fewer than five incompletions.

Across the field, Jared Goff has been nearly as impressive, though he struggled against Kansas City’s defense last week (203 yards, 2 TDs). Over the last four games, only one quarterback has failed to throw for 250+ yards against Detroit—and that was Cleveland’s Joe Flacco. With the Lions’ secondary in shambles, Mayfield could be primed for another signature performance.

The Passing Game Advantage: Here’s where Tampa Bay might seize control. Detroit will be without both starting safeties—Brian Branch (suspended for his illegal hit on JuJu Smith-Schuster) and Kerby Joseph (knee)—plus both starting outside cornerbacks Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and Avonte Maddox (hamstring). That’s four defensive backs from their starting lineup unavailable.

Tampa Bay counters with its own receiver crisis: Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) and Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) are ruled out, while Mike Evans (hamstring) is questionable but expected to play. If Evans suits up, he’ll face the most vulnerable Detroit secondary he’s seen in years. In Week 6 against San Francisco, with his top four receivers either out or injured mid-game, Mayfield orchestrated a 30-19 victory by spreading the ball to Tez Johnson, Kameron Johnson, and Sterling Shepard.

Ground Games: Detroit’s dual-threat backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs (390 yards, 4 TDs, 4.5 YPC) and David Montgomery (334 yards, 4 TDs, 5.1 YPC) continues to dominate. The duo tied Emmitt Smith and Daryl Johnston’s NFL record when they both scored touchdowns for the 14th time together.

Tampa Bay’s running game rests on Rachaad White’s shoulders. White has handled 75-77% of backfield touches with Irving sidelined and scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks, though his rushing efficiency (under 4.0 YPC) leaves room for improvement.

X-Factors That Could Swing the Game

1. Mike Evans’ Return: If the veteran receiver suits up after missing three games, his presence alone forces Detroit to respect the deep ball, opening up underneath routes for Cade Otton and the emerging rookie receivers.
2. Detroit’s Makeshift Secondary: With Branch suspended and Joseph, Arnold, and Maddox all out, the Lions are trotting out Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin as starting cornerbacks—a massive downgrade from their usual personnel.
3. The Lions’ Bounce-Back Mentality: Detroit hasn’t lost consecutive games since October 2022. Expect Dan Campbell’s squad to come out with fury after getting embarrassed by Kansas City.

Keys to Victory

For Tampa Bay:

• Exploit Detroit’s depleted secondary early and often
• Establish Rachaad White in the passing game to keep Detroit’s pass rush honest
• Win the turnover battle—the Bucs have the league’s lowest giveaway rate at 3.2%
• Generate pressure on Goff without blitzing excessively

For Detroit:

• Control time of possession with the Gibbs-Montgomery tandem
• Force Mayfield into mistakes by mixing coverages and disguising blitzes
• Get Amon-Ra St. Brown going early—he’s been relatively quiet recently
• Make this a physical, low-scoring grind to neutralize Tampa’s passing attack

Prediction: Bucs 27, Lions 24

This game has shootout potential, but Detroit’s defensive injuries are simply too severe. Mayfield has thrived all season when the Bucs need him most, and Tampa Bay’s secondary—getting healthier with McCollum and Morrison back—should slow down Goff enough to matter. Our Gridiron Experts team are split on this matchup, with the Lions favored by 4.5 points at home, but the Bucs’ resilience and Mayfield’s MVP-caliber play suggest they’ll find a way in another tight, dramatic finish. Expect a last-minute field goal or touchdown to decide this NFC heavyweight bout.

Final Score: Buccaneers 27, Lions 24