Week 5 Fantasy Football Start/Sit: 7 Calls I’m Making

START · WR · ARIZONA CARDINALS

Michael Wilson: The Targets Have Earned a WR1 Bet

Wilson has 30 targets over the last two games. He caught 11 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown in Week 3, then followed it with seven catches for 95 yards against the Giants. At this point, I am not treating the volume like a one-week accident.

PFM’s wide receiver stats have Wilson at a 29.7% target share and 44.3% of Arizona’s air yards through four games. That is a real No. 1 workload. I have him WR8 for Week 5 and WR25 rest of season because I still want more than two huge-volume games before moving him into that season-long tier, but Detroit is not the week where I am backing away from what Arizona is showing us.

My Call Start Wilson as a WR1. WR8 is aggressive, but 30 targets in two games gives me enough reason to make the bet.

START · RB · JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Bhayshul Tuten: The Workload Matters More Than Who Scored Last Week

Tuten had 17 carries for 73 yards last week and did not score. Chris Rodriguez got Jacksonville’s rushing touchdown instead. That is the kind of box score that can make a fantasy manager feel worse about the player than I do.

Tuten is already up to 60 carries for 277 yards through four games. Jacksonville is giving him enough rushing work to matter even before the receiving role gets bigger, and that is the main reason I have him RB14 this week. The seven catches for 54 yards keep some game-script risk in the profile, but the rushing job is too strong for me to chase the last touchdown scorer instead.

My Call Start Tuten as an RB2. I trust the 60 carries more than I care about Rodriguez getting the last goal-line score.

START · WR · DETROIT LIONS

Jameson Williams: The Downfield Role Finally Came With Enough Targets

Williams finally gave fantasy managers the full version of the role in Week 4. He caught six of eight targets for 102 yards after entering the game with 127 receiving yards through the first three weeks.

I am not pretending the target floor is fixed. His season-long target share is still 15.7%. What changed last week is that Detroit paired the downfield work with enough volume to let the yardage ceiling show up. Williams saw 136 air yards against Carolina and now owns 29.3% of Detroit’s air yards for the season. That is enough for me to move him into WR2 territory against Arizona without pretending he suddenly has the weekly floor of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

My Call Start Williams as a WR2 or flex. There is still volatility here, but I would rather bet on this role than leave the big-play ceiling on the bench.

START · WR · TENNESSEE TITANS

Carnell Tate: The Breakout Was Built on WR1 Volume

Tate’s nine catches for 145 yards against Baltimore are going to look like the reason to start him. I care more about the 12 targets.

He now has 32 targets through four games, and Week 4 was not a case of Tennessee spreading the ball around and Tate happening to break one. He drew 42.9% of the targets in that game, and his season-long air-yard share is pushing 50%. That is No. 1 receiver usage, even inside an offense that has struggled to score. PFM has Tate WR21 for Week 5 but WR35 rest of season, which is exactly the kind of one-week gap I want to attack when the role is getting stronger.

My Call Start Tate as a WR2 or strong flex. The 145 yards got the attention. The target concentration is why I trust the follow-up.

SIT · WR · TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Emeka Egbuka: The Matchup Is Better Than the Passing Situation

Dallas is the kind of matchup that makes it easy to talk yourself into Egbuka. I am still keeping him outside my top 35.

The role is useful, but it has not become a must-start role yet. Egbuka has 24 targets through four games with a 19.8% target share and 25% of Tampa Bay’s air yards. Last week, that turned into only two catches for 13 yards on four targets. Now Jalon Daniels is making his second NFL start while Baker Mayfield remains out with a dislocated right thumb. Daniels gave Tampa Bay 148 passing yards in his debut, and that is not enough volume for me to ignore when Egbuka’s role was already sitting in the useful-but-not-dominant range.

My Call Sit Egbuka if you have a healthy top-30 receiver or flex option. He is playable in deeper leagues, but WR36 is the right neighborhood for this week.

SIT · WR · BUFFALO BILLS

DJ Moore: I Cannot Trust Which Version Shows Up

Moore opened the season with five catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Since then, the weekly role has been almost impossible to trust.

He went without a target in Week 2, rebounded with six catches on 10 targets in Week 3, then fell back to one catch for 11 yards on two targets against New England. His 17.9% target share and 26% air-yard share are not empty numbers, but Buffalo has not concentrated the passing game around him often enough to give me a usable weekly floor.

My Call Sit Moore if you have a healthy top-40 receiver or a running back with stable flex volume. I want the targets to stabilize before I put him back in.

SIT · TE · DALLAS COWBOYS

Jake Ferguson: Three Touchdowns Are Hiding a Thin Receiving Role

Ferguson has three touchdowns through four games. That looks useful until you take the scores away and look at what is left.

He has 12 catches for 83 yards on 15 targets all season. Against Houston, Ferguson caught three of four targets for 11 yards. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are doing the heavy lifting in this passing game, and Ferguson has not been getting enough volume to give you much of a floor when the touchdown does not arrive. He has topped 23 receiving yards once in four games.

My Call Sit Ferguson if you have one of my top-15 tight ends available. I am not chasing a fourth touchdown on this target volume.