DraftKings Thursday Night Showdown, Ravens at Dolphins

Oh, my! The Spiderman meme was not even close to what last Thursday night’s showdown gave up. More like the many disturbing spanking memes. Here was the winning lineup of last week’s Showdown $10K Huddle (Single Entry):

• CPT: QB, J. Herbert, 39.42 ,26.45% drafted
• FLEX: WR, L. McConkey, 20.80 , 49.12% drafted
• FLEX: RB, K. Vidal, 22.70 , 47.73% drafted
• FLEX: WR, J. Addison, 11.60, 52.15% drafted
• FLEX: TE, O. Gadsden II, 18.70 , 50.04% drafted
• FLEX: Chargers Defense, 11.00, 11.73% drafted

Okay, enough reminiscing, let’s get to this juicy matchup. This is between two teams who won last week (against most odds). The Baltimore Ravens are a 7.5-point road favorite against the Miami Dolphins. The over/under for the game is 50.5.

Thursday Night Showdown Stats

The narrative is that neither defense is great. Here are what the statistics are telling us. 

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game

Dolphins: 145.0, but in their last three games, 96.3

Ravens: 128.9, but in their last three games, 112.3

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game

Dolphins: 199.4, but in their last three games, 177.7

Ravens: 250.7, but in their last three games, 231.0

The Ravens are allowing the highest explosive play rate, which is defined as a play of 15 yards or more. 

Ravens’ defense has the fourth-worst pressure rate. 

Lamar Jackson

The Lamar effect: When Lamar Jackson plays, the Ravens offense is fifth in yards per play.
When Lamar is not in the game, the offense is 22nd in yards per play. 

Thursday Night Showdown Props

• Derrick Henry 89.5 rushing yards, O-118 l U-111 (Over)
• De’Von Achane 56.5 rushing yards, O-110 l U-118 (Under)

But look at his combined rushing/receiving  90+ (-145) or longest ( O14.5 -125 U 14.5 -105)

• Tua Tagovailoa 216.5 passing yards, O-111 l U-114 (Tagovailoa has gone over 216 twice this season: Week 2 against the New England Patriots on 32 attempts, 26 receptions, threw for 315 yards, and Week 5 against the Carolina Panthers threw for 256 yards on 36 attempts with 27 receptions) (Over)
• Jaylen Waddle 63.5 receiving yards, O-114 l U-114 (In his last three games, Waddle has 99, 15, and 95 receiving yards. The 15 was against the Cleveland Browns’ defense) (Over) 
• DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Scorer +475 (Yes)

Purposely stayed away from Jackson’s props, because well…what do we really know. He was supposed to, could have, maybe played last week. He is a running quarterback coming back from a hamstring injury. The prevalent thought is that he will run less (which is why Henry’s rushing props are so high with Jackson in no box stacking) and play under center more. 

NFL Showdown $10K Huddle (Single Entry)

As always, our choices depend on our vision of the game script. The Ravens’ secondary is getting healthy, but last week, Caleb Williams still put up 285 passing yards on 38 attempts and 25 completions. 

The Dolphins’ defense was able to stack the box last week with Kirk Cousins under center and Drake London not playing. The result was Bijan Robinson was held to 25 yards on nine carries, and the Falcons as a team finished with 45 total rushing yards. It is unlikely that the Dolphins will be able to stack the box against the Ravens. 

The Lineup

Captain: QB, Tua Tagovailoa, $15,000

Flex: WR, Dee Eskridge, $200

Flex: RB, Derrick Henry, $11,000

Flex: QB, Lamar Jackson, $11,800

Flex: TE, Charlie Kolar, $1,600

Flex: WR, Jaylen Waddle, $10,400

Now What, Lamar?

The presumption is that Jackson is playing this game. Coincidentally, that was also the presumption last Sunday. Whether or not Jackson plays will most likely not change the outcome of the game, but could drastically change the margins.

DraftKings has Jackson’s props:

• Passing Yards, 240+, -105
• Anytime TD Scorer +155
• Rushing yards, 40+, +106
• Rushing Attempts, 6+, -158

So, staying away from Jackson’s props seems sound advice. But if you are so inclined, he is the most expensive captain choice, coming in at $17,700 (Tagovailoa is the fifth most expensive choice).

Both offenses are concentrated IF Jackson is in TE, Isaiah Likely at $3,000 is viable. You are going to have to go bargain hunting (Tagovailoa at captain), which is always the case when offenses are so concentrated and pricing is tight. 

Good Luck, and play nice.