Alas, There Is Another Harrison Smith Theory

Will he or won’t he? That’s the question regarding longtime Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith that fans have asked since January: whether the veteran defender will return for Year No. 15. And according to Ben Leber, a former Vikings linebacker, Smith could slow-roll the decision and possibly return after the bye week in October.

It’s the latest in Smith’s return-or-retire saga that remains one of Minnesota’s top summer storylines.

Vikings’ Safety Room Has Enough Flexibility to Wait

Leber on Smith

Leber is quite connected to the Vikings, working as a media member for the club and crossing over into KFAN’s layer of Vikings coverage.

He said on his YouTube channel this week about Smith, “I could see him coming back and saying, ‘Okay, I’ll use the bye week to sort of make sure that I’m in football shape. Maybe be on a snap count for the first game or two after that.’”

“And then after that, he’s playing full-time. But I get the sense that he’s not done. He’ll play for part of the season, but I think that’s a major factor because we saw what happens when he’s not in the lineup.”

If Leber is correct, it would be a first-of-its-kind arrangement for Smith, who has never waited this long to announce his decision.

The Safety Situation

Depending on rookie Jakobe Thomas’s game-readiness — he’s a 3rd-Round rookie from Miami and fruit of the Jonathan Greenard trade to the Philadelphia Eagles in April — the safety room is well-stocked, though Smith would obviously provide a familiar veteran boost.

These are the safeties six weeks before training camp without Smith:

• Josh Metellus
• Jay Ward
• Theo Jackson
• Jakobe Thomas
• Tavierre Thomas
• Kahlef Hailassie

Metellus played through a torn labrum last year, leading some fans to question his effectiveness. Fully healed, Metellus should be in line for a bounceback year. Ward finished the 2025 campaign strong, even swiping Jackson’s starting job in December.

The Thomases will make the active roster, and Jakobe could be an x-factor if Smith remains retired.

Our Brevan Bane wrote this week, “While some Vikings fans may want Smith to stay off the roster to focus on younger players like Jay Ward and Jakobe Thomas, it feels like there would be a bit of a gaping hole in the Vikings’ secondary without Harrison Smith. Sure, names like Theo Jackson and Josh Metellus have proven they can provide solid play when called upon. The issue is that Metellus is more of a liability if he plays deep safety.”

“If Harrison Smith, who can do everything, doesn’t come back, then we will have to hope that Jay Ward or Jakobe Thomas are ready to step into those shoes. We can take comfort in the fact that Brian Flores is the defensive coordinator. He will surely maximize all of the talent in the room, but he would also love to have Harrison Smith back.”

A Diplomatic Approach to Year No. 15

Minnesota’s bye week occurs after the October 11th game in New Orleans, when the Vikings will either have a 5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-4, or 0-5 record.

If Smith follows the Leber theory, he can basically gauge whether a return to the only NFL employer he’s ever known is worth it. That is — if the Vikings have a 1-4 or 0-5 record, clearly trending in the wrong direction, would it be worth it to come back for one final ride?

On the other hand, if Minnesota hangs tough and posts a winning record in September and October, Smith may not want to miss out on the fun. Leber’s idea enables Smith to “wait and see.”

The Quote from January 2024

Near the end of the 2023 campaign — the “Joshua Dobbs season,” when the Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to an Achilles tear — Smith told reporters, “Whenever I retire, I’m not going to tell you. You’ll figure it out. … I’ll say this, it’s hard to have the ability to play and not have the desire to play. I’m not trying to be ominous or anything. Right now, my shoulder hurts.”

Some have wondered recently if that quote is playing out in real time. Smith boldly told the world that when he retires, the event will transpire without fanfare. Perhaps that’s ongoing, and folks have misinterpreted his current status.

Of course, Leber’s theory this week disagrees. Still, at some point, Smith will fulfill his own prophecy. For 2026’s sake, it’s a matter of now or the 2027 offseason.

Smith turned 37 in February.

Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker