7 Lineup Calls to Trust

Week 3 went 6-for-7. Tyler Shough, Christian Watson and Chuba Hubbard paid off as starts, and all three sits held up. Dalton Schultz was the one miss.

That is much closer to the standard I want for this column. Schultz is also a useful miss. He went from 22 targets through two games to only three in Week 3, which is a reminder that two weeks of volume still need to be tested against the role we are getting right now.

For Week 4, I am leaning into players whose opportunities are already visible. The starts have workload I can trust, and the sits are talented names that are not getting enough work to justify forcing them into a lineup.

Scoring: These calls use my current Week 4 Half-PPR rankings. Rest-of-season rank is included so you can see when I am making a one-week lineup call instead of changing how I value the player for the year. I also checked current usage, injuries and independent Week 4 ranks before locking the seven. When workload is part of the argument, I use PFM’s running back advanced stats and wide receiver advanced stats to check carry share, target share, air yards and efficiency. See the full Week 4 fantasy football rankings.

START · RB · PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Jaylen Warren: I Am Riding the Bigger Backfield Role

Week 4RB16

Rest of SeasonRB25

Opponent@ CLE

Warren finally got the Pittsburgh backfield to himself in Week 3 and made a strong case for keeping more of it. With Rico Dowdle inactive, Warren played 53 offensive snaps, carried 17 times for 127 yards and caught three of four targets for another 49. The other Steelers running backs combined for six snaps and two touches.

The season-long workload is stronger than the raw fantasy totals make it look. PFM’s running back advanced stats have Warren at a 56.7% carry share and 13.3% target share through three games. He is averaging 17.3 opportunities per game and 6.79 yards per touch. Dowdle did not practice Monday or Tuesday because of the toe injury, and Pittsburgh plays Thursday night. I have Warren RB16 for Week 4 and RB25 rest of season because the receiving role was already there before the Week 3 workload spike.

My Call Start Warren as an RB2. Check Pittsburgh’s final injury report before Thursday lock, but I am not putting him back on the bench after the workload he handled with Dowdle out.

START · WR · INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Josh Downs: The Targets Are Telling Us to Move Before the Box Score Does

Week 4WR24

Rest of SeasonWR50

Opponent@ WAS

Downs has not had the blowup game yet. I do not care. He drew 11 targets in Week 3, caught five for 77 yards and has seen his role grow in back-to-back games. Even while playing 68% of the snaps, he ran a route on 83% of Indianapolis dropbacks and led the Colts in targets.

PFM’s wide receiver advanced stats make the case stronger. Downs has 24 targets through three games, a 25.5% target share and 43.6% of the Colts air yards. His 11.7-yard aDOT also tells me these are not just empty underneath targets. PFM has Downs WR24 for Week 4 but only WR50 rest of season. That is exactly the kind of weekly gap I want to attack before everyone treats him like an automatic flex.

My Call Start Downs as a WR3 or flex. I am betting on the targets before the touchdowns arrive. If Indianapolis keeps giving him this many chances, the box score is going to catch up.

START · WR · GREEN BAY PACKERS

Matthew Golden: Thirty Targets in Three Games Is Enough for Me

Week 4WR18

Rest of SeasonWR47

Opponent@ TB

Golden has 30 targets through three games. That is the number that matters most to me. He led Green Bay with 12 targets in Week 3, turned them into five catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, and now has 15 catches for 253 yards on the season.

The PFM split tells the story. Golden is WR18 for Week 4 but only WR47 rest of season. I am not waiting for the long-term board to catch up before using a receiver who is already averaging 10 targets per game. The wr stats data backs up the opportunity, with Golden sitting at a 25.0% target share, 38.6% air-yard share, 416 air yards and a 13.9-yard aDOT. That is real downfield volume, not a receiver living on a couple of broken plays.

My Call Start Golden as a WR2 or flex. If the choice is Golden or a bigger name living on five or six targets, I want the receiver Green Bay is already throwing to 10 times per game.

START · TE · NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Juwan Johnson: The Touchdowns Are Not the Whole Case

Week 4TE8

Rest of SeasonTE18

Opponentvs. ATL

Johnson scored twice against Las Vegas, but I am not starting him just because he found the end zone. He has 15 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns through three games. He gave us 54 yards in Week 1, 66 in Week 2 and then caught eight passes in Week 3.

That is enough receiving work to matter at tight end before we even count the touchdowns. PFM has Johnson TE8 for Week 4 and TE18 rest of season, while FantasyPros consensus also has him inside the weekly top 10. Atlanta comes to New Orleans on Monday night, and I would rather take this role than chase a touchdown-only tight end on Sunday.

My Call Start Johnson. I do not need another two-touchdown game. If he keeps getting this level of involvement, the catches and yardage give him a usable path even when the scores cool off.

SIT · WR · DENVER BRONCOS

Courtland Sutton: The Name Is Doing More Work Than the Production

Week 4WR49

Rest of SeasonWR35

Opponent@ SF

Sutton has eight catches for 82 yards through three games. That is it. He saw seven targets against the Rams and still finished with three catches for 46 yards, which was his best yardage game of the season.

Sutton has a modest 18.4% target share, 28.3% air-yard share and 9.6-yard aDOT. He is getting some usable opportunities, but not enough volume or downfield concentration to make 82 yards through three games look like a fluke. PFM has him WR49 at San Francisco, and FantasyPros consensus also has him WR49.

My Call Sit Sutton if you have a healthy top-40 receiver or a back with steady flex volume. Eight catches in three games is not enough to keep starting him because of what his name usually means.

SIT · WR · ARIZONA CARDINALS

Marvin Harrison Jr.: The Name Cannot Carry This Target Share

Week 4WR50

Rest of SeasonWR28

Opponent@ NYG

Arizona threw 52 passes in Week 3 and Harrison saw five targets. Michael Wilson saw 17. Harrison finished with three catches for 40 yards, which was actually his best receiving game of the season, and he has only nine targets through three weeks.

The advanced numbers make this harder to ignore. They have Harrison at only an 8.0% target share. He does own a 17.7-yard aDOT and 22.4% of Arizona’s air yards, so the targets he gets can be valuable. There just are not enough of them. That is why I have Harrison WR50 for Week 4 even though he is still WR28 rest of season.

My Call Sit Harrison if you have a healthy top-40 receiver or a running back with stable flex volume. If he beats me with one big play, I can live with it. I need to see Arizona throw his way more than this before I put him back in.

SIT · WR · LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Quentin Johnston: The Playing Time Is No Longer Enough

Week 4WR53

Rest of SeasonWR37

Opponent@ SEA

Johnston is still playing a lot of snaps. That has not turned into useful fantasy production. He has caught six of 17 targets for 64 yards through three games, and his 3.8 yards per target is the bigger problem than one bad box score.

Our stats show a 19.8% target share, 20.5% air-yard share and 10.1-yard aDOT. Those are not unusable opportunity numbers, but Johnston has turned them into only 64 receiving yards. Tre Harris is already at 10 catches for 149 yards on 16 targets and nearly the same air-yard share. PFM has Johnston WR53 for Week 4 and WR37 rest of season. Seattle is not the spot where I want to keep betting that playing time finally turns into production.

My Call Sit Johnston. I want to see him turn routes into catches before I trust him again, especially with Harris already earning more work when he gets on the field.

What I Am Trusting in Week 4

The four starts have something concrete behind them. Warren handled a true lead-back workload with Dowdle out. Downs is earning a growing share of the Colts passing game before the touchdowns have arrived. Golden has 30 targets in three games. Johnson has 15 catches, 173 yards and three scores without needing one fluky play to create all of it.

The sits are all trust problems. Sutton has eight catches in three games, Harrison has nine targets in three games and Johnston has turned 17 targets into only 64 yards. I would rather move off a recognizable name for one week than keep waiting for volume or efficiency that has not shown up.

Ranks reviewed: September 30, 2026. PFM’s Week 4 Half-PPR board was updated September 29. Jaylen Warren plays Thursday night, so check Pittsburgh’s final injury report before kickoff. Week 4 ranks can still move as practice reports and availability news change.