Bucs vs. Vikings: SR’s Pick-6 Preview

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

It’s do-or-die time for the Bucs entering Week 3 with a shocking 0-2 record. Todd Bowles and his team are feeling the pressure of getting that first win of the year, and that could be a tall order against a 2-0 Vikings team that is playing well on both sides of the ball. Kyler Murray returns to quarterback Minnesota in a critical Week 3 game at Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield needs to rebound and deliver a commanding performance – and a win – on Sunday to avoid a dubious 0-3 start.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

Todd Bowles is under fire for Tampa Bay’s 0-2 start and is squarely on the hot seat after the Bucs suffered an inexcusable loss to the Browns in the home opener last week. After building a 10-point lead after halftime, Bowles’ defense collapsed in the second half and made Deshaun Watson look like a Pro Bowler as he threw for two touchdowns. The Bucs defense has just three sacks and only one takeaway through the first two weeks of the season despite overhauling the unit this offseason. It’s been a combination of misalignments, missed tackles and coverage busts that have hurt Tampa Bay – more of the same for Bowles and the defense again this year.

On offense, Baker Mayfield has gotten off to a bad start with four turnovers in two games. He hasn’t quite gotten in sync with Zac Robinson’s passing game, which was helter skelter in Week 2 with either too many ineffective screen passes to the flat or too many incompletions on bombs downfield. The Bucs running game is working, and Robinson needs to lean on that more in Week 3 to keep Brian Flores’ defense at bay, especially in the red zone where they’ve struggled. Tampa Bay can’t afford to go to 0-3 this week if it wants to get back to the playoffs.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What’s At Stake For The Vikings?

The Vikings are off to a 2-0 start, and the best part is that both wins have come at the hands of NFC North foes. Minnesota has an early lead in the division and has the chance to rack up another NFC win at Tampa Bay on Sunday and build some early-season momentum. The key will be getting quality play at quarterback from Kyler Murray, who suffered a concussion just 11 snaps into the season opener. Carson Wentz proved to be a steady hand at the helm of the Vikings offense as a replacement, and Murray can’t re-enter the lineup and screw up.

Through two games, Brian Flores’ defense has eight sacks, led by Dallas Turner’s three QB captures so far. That’s helped Minnesota rank fourth in the league in scoring defense, allowing just 12.5 points per game so far in 2026. Last week’s effort of holding Chicago’s high-powered offense to just a field goal was a thing of beauty and showed just how well the Vikings defense can perform when living up to its vast potential.

Vikings QB Kyler Murray – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

The Bucs Win If…

Tampa Bay has done a great job of beating itself through the first two weeks, losing the turnover margin by minus-3 in Week 1 at Cincinnati and by minus-1 last week versus Cleveland. At minus-4 through two games, only Atlanta, which is minus-6, has a worse turnover differential. Baker Mayfield must play error-free football on offense. Through the first two games, he has twice as many turnovers (four) as he does touchdowns (one rushing, one passing). Mayfield can’t do it all, especially against Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense, so Tampa Bay will need to successfully run the ball and help Bucky Irving have a big day.

On defense, the Bucs pass rush must come alive. Tampa Bay’s defense only has three sacks through the first two games and has been a huge disappointment thus far. First-round draft pick Rueben Bain Jr. has been invisible and veterans Yaya Diaby, Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey have been non-factors up front. Kyler Murray is a dynamic quarterback who can hurt defenses with his legs if he escapes the pocket. Tampa Bay will need to maintain lane integrity when rushing the passer and then not miss Murray at point blank range. Successfully pressuring Murray can help keep Justin Jefferson from going off downfield.

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Vikings Win If…

Minnesota won in Week 1 due to tremendous offensive play in a 39-22 home win over the Packers in Week 1 thanks to three touchdown passes from Carson Wentz and converting 8-of-15 third downs and being a magnificent 4-of-4 in the red zone. Last week, the Vikings defense won a low-scoring affair in Chicago, holding the Bears offense, which scored 59 against the Panthers in Week 1, to just three points in a 9-3 victory to move to 2-0 and take the early lead in the NFC North.

Minnesota has already shown it can win with either its offense or defense – and is 2-0 despite having to play a backup quarterback for all but 11 snaps this season. As long as Kyler Murray isn’t too rusty and doesn’t self-destruct against a desperate Bucs defense, the Vikings have enough on offense to take advantage of a Bucs defense that has been known to self-implode, such as last week when Tampa Bay surrendered a 10-point lead in the second half. Winning the turnover battle will be key, as the Vikings are plus-3 to start 2026 in turnover margin, while the Bucs are minus-4.

Vikings DC Brian Flores – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield vs. Vikings DC Brian Flores

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has been sacked seven times through the first two games of the season, and he’s been forced to scramble nine other times due to pressure from a collapsing pocket. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has not been as stout as expected, especially at the guard position where Ben Bredeson has given up a sack in each game and Cody Mauch has allowed a team-high eight pressures through two weeks. As a result, Mayfield has felt uncomfortable in the pocket and looked skittish to the start the season.

That could continue on Sunday when the Vikings and blitz-happy coordinator Brian Flores come to town. If you think Todd Bowles likes to blitz, Flores blitzes at a much higher rate, and his defense has eight sacks through two games. It will be up to Mayfield and center Graham Barton to correctly read Minnesota’s defensive front pre-snap and try to identify where Flores’ blitzers are coming from.

Then it’s on the offensive line and the running backs to pick it up – and on Mayfield to get rid of the ball by either dumping it off to an underneath target to avoid a sack, successfully scrambling out of sack, or simply throwing the ball away. Tampa Bay has struggled mightily in third-and-long downs this season and must avoid lost yardage that comes with sacks at all costs. Mayfield also must be careful to attack the right spots on defense when targeting hot reads and not be baited into pressure-filled interceptions on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Linebackers And Safeties vs. Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson

Through two games Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson has had a modest start to the season with just seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown, yet he’s still the second-leading receiver on the team in all of those categories behind Pro Bowl receiver Justin Jefferson. There’s a chance Hockenson could double his season-long production on Sunday against Todd Bowles’ defense, which has historically struggled to contain tight ends in the passing game.

Vikings TE TJ Hockenson – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Through two games this year, the Buccaneers have given up more catches (15) to tight ends for more yards (172 yards) and surrendered more touchdowns (two) than any other defense in the NFL. Last year, the Bucs were one of the worst teams defending tight ends, allowing 100 catches for 969 yards and 12 touchdowns. Only the Bengals were considerably worse, allowing 116 catches for 1,444 yards and 16 touchdowns to tight ends in 2025.

Despite bringing in two new linebackers in veteran Alex Anzalone and rookie Josiah Trotter, and a new nickelback in rookie Keionte Scott, not much has changed. In last week’s loss to the Browns, starting tight end Harold Fannin Jr. had five catches for 54 yards and backup Blake Whiteheart scored the game-winning touchdown on a wide-open, 17-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter. Veteran safety Antoine Winfield Jr. had the coverage bust on the play.