How Much Could J.J. McCarthy Net in a Trade?

The last two weeks have not been kind to Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy.

After a brief camp battle, the Vikings named Kyler Murray their starting QB over McCarthy on August 11. Since then, McCarthy has played in two preseason games, posting a passer rating of 77.5 and completion percentage of 50.0%. More importantly, his inaccuracy issues have somehow gotten even worse, reaching their peak with an overthrow of Myles Price on 4th and goal at the 1 yard line in Saturday’s 13-3 loss against the Ravens.

The Return in a Possible J.J. McCarthy Trade

Coming into the offseason, there was hope that McCarthy could turn things around after his disappointing debut in 2025 and perhaps even compete for the starting job.

At this point, however, the conversation has shifted: the new camp battle is not Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy for QB1 but rather J.J. McCarthy vs. Carson Wentz for QB2, and it seems like McCarthy is losing that battle. If he continues to play like he has so far in the preseason, it’s not even clear that McCarthy deserves a place on the roster.

McCarthy is still on his rookie contract, so his salary will remain quite low through 2027, though the money is guaranteed. This means that the team has little to gain by cutting him outright: only desperate need of his roster spot could justify that scenario.

If the Vikings could find a trade partner, however, they could potentially shed J.J. McCarthy’s contract and pick up some draft capital in return. But, how much is McCarthy worth at this point?

To analyze this, it is helpful to look at the trades involving other highly drafted QBs in recent seasons:

*AV stands for Approximate Value, Pro Football Reference’s measure of a player’s value to his team.
**Fields was traded for a conditional 6th, which could have been upgraded to a 4th, but the conditions were not met.

It’s a small sample size, of course, but the table hints at two important lessons.

First, a QB who doesn’t pan out with their original team cannot be expected to garner much in trade value. 2018 1st Round picks Rosen and Darnold each netted a 2nd Round pick, but in more recent years, the market for failed 1st Round QBs has depreciated. Since 2021, no former 1st Round bust has netted anything better than a day 3 pick. 

Another pattern we see is that a QB’s performance and draft pick seem to matter less than the number of years remaining on his rookie contract. Justin Fields and Mac Jones each had a good season with the Bears and Patriots, respectively, yet they garnered only 6th Round picks in trades after their 3rd NFL seasons. Teams trade for disappointing young QBs in the hopes of turning them around, and if they succeed, they want to be able to keep them under cheap team control for more than one year.

What does this mean for J.J. McCarthy? To begin, if the Vikings want to trade McCarthy, now is probably the time. The former Michigan QB has two years left on his contract, and it’s not outlandish to think that some other team might want to take a chance on the young QB.

On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine that McCarthy could net more than a 5th Round pick at this point. Part of the reason why the price for former 1st Round QBs has dropped in recent years is probably because none of the QBs in the table above have brought any meaningful value to the team that traded for them.

Yes, Darnold eventually went on to win a Super Bowl, but it took another five seasons and three teams after the Panthers for him to get there. Nobody wants to trade much for a QB in the unlikely hope that he’ll turn things around a few years after his contract has ended.

J.J. McCarthy seems to have regressed during his time in Minnesota, and a fresh start could be good for the young QB. But are the chances that McCarthy figures it out worth more than a 5th and/or 6th Round pick? That’s the question the Vikings need to answer, and they need to answer it soon.  

Tom’s writing features expertise in mathematics, statistics  and rules. Readers can expect to learn from this life-long Vikings’ fans … More about Tom Rudelius